Mark Andrews’ fantasy value is sharply declining, as nearly 75% of trades involving him on PFSN result in managers dropping him from their rosters. This trend persists despite Isaiah Likely’s fractured foot, which might keep Likely out through Week 1, a situation that should theoretically increase Andrews’ targets and boost his stock. Yet, fantasy managers remain skeptical about his longer-term outlook heading into the season.

Concerns Over Unsustainable Touchdown Rates

One of the main reasons for this skepticism is Andrews’ unusual touchdown efficiency in 2024. Last season, Andrews posted a remarkable 20% touchdown rate on receptions, a career-high that significantly outpaced his previous rates—13.3% in Todd Monken’s first year as Baltimore’s offensive coordinator and just 6.8% in 2022. This sudden spike was the primary driver of his fantasy success but is widely viewed as an anomaly rather than a sustainable trend.

Touchdown rates fluctuate considerably from year to year, and Andrews led the league with 11 touchdowns despite fewer receptions and targets compared to many other tight ends; 13 tight ends caught more passes, and 19 had greater target totals last season. This suggests his scoring volume was more about efficiency than opportunity, which is less reliable in Baltimore’s run-heavy offense where red zone chances are limited.

Andrews now ranks tied for 41st in career touchdowns, the most in Ravens history, underscoring his past scoring prowess but not alleviating concerns about his future returns.

Isaiah Likely’s Return Threatens Andrews’ Role

Although Likely’s injury initially boosts Andrews’ target share, the long-term implications are less favorable. Recent surveys by ESPN that included executives, coaches, and scouts placed both Likely and Andrews among the league’s top tight ends, highlighting increasing competition within the Ravens’ tight-end group.

Likely is more than a mere backup; he is a legitimate challenger to Andrews’ role, a fact well-known even before the injury. Baltimore’s offense often employs two-tight end sets, but with its strong emphasis on the running game, the passing volume is rarely high enough to support two fantasy-impactful tight ends simultaneously. Last season’s target distribution reflected this limitation.

The behavior of PFSN fantasy managers aligns with this outlook. These users are knowledgeable and strategic, and the fact that almost three-quarters of Andrews-related trades end with managers dropping him indicates a market inefficiency that wider fantasy audiences have yet to fully grasp.

Changes in Baltimore’s Offensive Strategy Diminish Andrews’ Ceiling

Since Todd Monken took over as offensive coordinator, Baltimore’s offense has shifted fundamentally. Lamar Jackson is increasingly being deployed as a pocket passer, resulting in more widespread target distribution across receivers and tight ends. Andrews no longer commands the dominant target share he once did, as younger receivers have risen and Likely has developed into a reliable option in the passing game.

In a run-first attack, spreading targets thinly reduces fantasy upside for any single player, especially tight ends competing for looks. Although Likely’s injury offers a temporary reprieve, savvy managers are considering the bigger picture beyond the early weeks, understanding that Andrews’ chances of sustained elite production may be dwindling faster than reflected in his current average draft position (ADP).

Forward-Looking Managers Are Moving Away From Andrews

Managers on PFSN are making a calculated move by trading away Andrews while his perceived value remains elevated due to Likely’s absence. His 2024 touchdown rate was exceptional but also misleading when evaluating his overall role and opportunity metrics. The potential return of a healthy Likely poses a serious threat to Andrews’ target volume, undermining his long-term fantasy prospects.

Success in fantasy football often depends on anticipating changes before they become obvious. The significant number of Andrews trades on PFSN demonstrates this forward-thinking approach. While others cling to past production or short-term injury boosts, informed fantasy managers are preparing for a likely scenario where Andrews’ importance in Baltimore’s offense continues to wane.

The evidence suggests Andrews’ fantasy relevance is facing a critical decline, a warning clearly understood by the most discerning fantasy participants ahead of the 2024 season.