The New England Patriots addressed their weak wide receiver group last year by acquiring veteran Stefon Diggs, but with Diggs entering 2024 coming off a significant knee injury and no longer in peak form, questions remain about his fantasy value. As fantasy football managers look ahead, the Stefon Diggs Patriots fantasy outlook centers on whether the seasoned wide receiver can regain his effectiveness and deliver reliable production this season.
Diggs’ Skill Set and Aging Curve
While the elite version of Diggs seen between 2020 and 2022 likely won’t return, his style of play has always depended more on route running and football IQ than raw athleticism, traits that tend to withstand aging. A receiver like Diggs can realistically continue to contribute well into his mid-30s, provided his role and usage align with his current capabilities.
Stefon Diggs 2024 #ReceptionPerception profile is up on the site!
Highlights:
– 71.6% success rate vs man coverage
– 78.8% success rate vs zone
– 71.4% success rate vs press
– Excellent on out-breakers
Obviously these results are much lower than Diggs’ peak elite seasons but… —Matt Harmon, Analyst
Diggs’ recent reception metrics demonstrate solid production against different types of coverage, even if they fall short of his career-best levels. Importantly, these numbers reflect his refined route-running skills, especially his effectiveness on “out-breaker” routes.
Usage Patterns and Position Shifts in Recent Seasons
Two years ago during the latter half of his last year with the Buffalo Bills, Diggs experienced decreased usage and was frequently sidelined as the offense shifted away from his strengths. This decline culminated in him being a less viable fantasy option down the stretch of the 2023 season.
After being traded to the Houston Texans last year, Diggs found himself competing for snaps with well-established outside receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell. This competition led to a greater reliance on Diggs playing in the slot, where his skill set fits better at this stage of his career.
Diggs set a career high by running 45.3% of his routes from the slot, though his slot usage varied drastically. During Weeks 1 through 5, he ran 60.6% of his routes out of the slot, but following a hamstring injury to Collins in Week 5, Diggs was pushed outside again, running 37.8% slot routes from Weeks 6 to 8 despite that not being the preferred plan.
Implications for the Patriots’ Receiving Corps
With the Patriots now Diggs’ third team in as many seasons, his past role with the Texans suggests how he might be used in New England. The Patriots’ receiving depth behind Diggs includes DeMario Douglas, Mack Hollins, Kendrick Bourne, and rookie Kyle Williams, none of whom are proven as reliable WR1 options.
Given this, Diggs is set to fill the primary wide receiver role, likely alternating between the slot and outside depending on formations. However, the question remains whether the Patriots will provide a heavy enough dose of slot-heavy personnel to maximize Diggs’ strengths.
Last year, the Patriots utilized 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers) 59% of the time, ranking 18th in the league. For comparison, Mike Vrabel’s Titans favored this personnel grouping only 53.3% in 2023, indicating a modest preference for heavy wide receiver sets but not an overwhelming one.
Performance Trends Based on Alignment and Injury Impact
Although Diggs tore his ACL in Week 8 of last season, the limited sample reveals he was more productive when playing in the slot. When running at least 60% of his routes from the slot, he averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game, contrasting with an average of 13.2 points per game during stretches when he played outside due to Collins’ injury.
This data supports the idea that Diggs’ fantasy viability hinges on playing primarily from the slot, a position that reduces his need to rely on top-end speed and explosiveness post-injury.
Assessing Risks and Draft Value
There are clear concerns about asking a 31-year-old recovering from an ACL tear to consistently perform as the lead outside receiver. Diggs is also unlikely to be fully available at the start of the season, adding uncertainty for fantasy managers.
However, his current average draft position around WR40, with some projections placing him near WR37, offers low downside with potential rewards. Securing Diggs as a WR3 could provide steady weekly production if his health holds and the Patriots use him effectively within their offensive schemes.
Outlook: Balancing Optimism with Caution
The Stefon Diggs Patriots fantasy outlook for 2024 is a balancing act between his demonstrated football intelligence and route-running proficiency versus the physical limitations imposed by age and a major knee injury. Given the modest passing weapons surrounding him, Diggs remains the most likely candidate to lead the receiving group, but his overall output will depend heavily on how much the Patriots incorporate slot-heavy sets and manage his workload.
Fantasy football managers should monitor Diggs’ health closely during training camp and preseason while tempering expectations with the understanding that he will need to adapt his game to maintain consistent productivity. His veteran savvy gives hope for a rebound, but the risk remains significant in the competitive fantasy landscape.