Trevor Lawrence has demonstrated occasional QB1-level performances but has yet to establish himself as a consistently reliable fantasy football starting quarterback. Heading into the 2025 <a href="https://www.buzzineintl.com/category/football/nfl/”>NFL season, the Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback enters a pivotal year under a new coaching staff and with improved receiving options, making this his final opportunity to prove he can be a true fantasy QB1 or to confirm that he may not reach that level. Fantasy football managers must decide whether Lawrence is worth a late-round draft pick as a potential upside play.
The Role of Draft Status and Comparisons with Peers
Draft capital continues to shape NFL careers, and as the No. 1 overall pick, Lawrence has repeatedly been given opportunities to rise above a borderline starting role. He was once touted as an Andrew Luck–type prospect, though he has never matched that elite potential. Meanwhile, other quarterbacks such as Daniel Jones, despite being a starter, were benched last season and are currently fighting for starting jobs. It raises questions about why Lawrence remains the unquestioned starter in Jacksonville while others must compete for playing time.
Fantasy football often blurs the line between talent and opportunity. Players like Tim Tebow, who struggled significantly as passers in the NFL, still managed to provide QB1 fantasy value during unexpected moments. Similarly, Anthony Richardson, who is battling Jones for the Colts’ starting job, promises high fantasy production when on the field despite questions about his long-term NFL viability. Yet, Lawrence, despite flashes of strong fantasy output, has not secured consistent top-tier fantasy relevance.
Statistical Breakdown of Lawrence’s Career Fantasy Performance
Through 60 career starts, Lawrence has averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game, a figure that is actually lower than Daniel Jones achieved over an equal number of starts. In the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Lawrence offered borderline QB1 value, averaging 17.9 and 17.3 fantasy points per game respectively, with flashes of brilliance including multiple games scoring over 20 fantasy points—six in 2022, four in 2023, and three games so far in 2024.
Impact of Coaching and Team Situation on Lawrence’s Development
One recurring explanation for Lawrence’s uneven performance has been his coaching environment. His rookie season was marked by the disastrous tenure of Urban Meyer, widely regarded as one of the worst head coaches in league history. This was followed by Doug Pederson’s regime, which many believe failed to maximize Lawrence’s potential. The arrival of offensive coordinator Liam Coen, credited with revitalizing Baker Mayfield’s career in Tampa Bay, brings new hope for Lawrence’s growth as he enters his prime at 26 years old.
Lawrence now benefits from a stronger supporting cast, featuring one of the NFL’s brightest young wide receivers in Brian Thomas Jr. and the addition of Travis Hunter, a legitimate WR2 acquired in the recent NFL Draft. Despite these upgrades, Lawrence’s past season averages—15.2 fantasy points per game, a 60.06% completion rate, and a 1.57 touchdown-to-interception ratio—highlight the thin margin he now has to improve if he wants to remain the Jaguars’ starting quarterback beyond 2025.
Meaningful Opportunity or Final Chance?
For fantasy managers, Lawrence’s draft price has sunk significantly this year, dropping to around QB26 in average draft position after years of optimistic projections. This reduced cost mitigates risk, allowing owners to take a low-stakes gamble on his potential breakthrough. However, betting on Lawrence requires faith in both his inherent skill and the revamped coaching staff’s ability to unlock it.
The question remains whether Lawrence can evolve into a consistent top-10 NFL quarterback or sustain the QB1 fantasy weeks he has intermittently produced. His current ranking among fantasy analysts often falls behind younger prospects like JJ McCarthy, Bryce Young, and Michael Penix Jr., signaling skepticism about his future upside.
What This Means for Lawrence’s Career and Fantasy Value
After four seasons, a clearer picture of Lawrence’s capabilities is emerging, akin to the trajectory of Baker Mayfield, who also faced career setbacks after injuries and diminished opportunities. Unlike Mayfield, who lost his starting job after four years, this season represents a crossroads for Lawrence; he must demonstrate sustained improvement or risk being supplanted in 2026.
Though a breakout into consistent QB1 territory remains possible, it is a gamble fantasy managers must weigh carefully, as many doubt Lawrence will make that leap. For now, his situation embodies the pressure and uncertainty surrounding the Jaguars’ young quarterback as he approaches a critical juncture in both his NFL and fantasy football careers.