Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh has surged as a leading American League MVP contender alongside New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge during the 2025 season. With Judge recovering from a flexor strain and the MVP market tightening, Raleigh’s strong performance has placed him in near-equal standing with Judge, creating an intense competition for the prestigious award.
Current AL MVP Odds Reflect a Close Battle
The latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook highlight a closely contested race between Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh. Judge holds a slight edge with odds at -125, while Raleigh is positioned just behind at -105. Both athletes stand far ahead of the rest of the league, as no other player’s chances are below +10000. This minimal gap signals that bettors have a significant opportunity to back either star at favorable prices.
Statistical Breakdown: Judge Versus Raleigh
Aaron Judge leads Major League Baseball in several key categories, including WAR, batting average, on-base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, and weighted runs created plus (wRC+), along with topping the American League in runs scored. His batting average currently stands at .337, with a slugging percentage of .691, demonstrating his consistent offensive dominance.
Meanwhile, Cal Raleigh has been impressive in his own right, leading MLB in home runs and runs batted in (RBI). Raleigh’s batting average is .247, but his on-base percentage (.354) and slugging percentage (.593) reflect his power-hitting capabilities. His OPS+ trails Judge’s but remains substantial enough to keep him competitive in the MVP discussion.
Impact of Injuries and Team Standings on the MVP Race
Judge’s recent injury briefly shifted the market, making Raleigh the favorite while Judge was sidelined. Although Judge has returned to the Yankees’ lineup, he has struggled offensively with only three hits in 15 at-bats across five games, raising questions about his long-term health. However, as Judge’s overall season numbers remain superior, his presence on the field will be critical to securing the MVP.
Regarding team performance, the Mariners have recently climbed ahead of the Yankees in the standings. Still, both teams currently occupy wild card positions, minimizing the impact of team success in the MVP equation. Historically, individual statistics weigh more heavily than team record for this award, so Judge and Raleigh’s personal achievements carry the most significance.
Evaluating the Prospects: Who Will Claim the 2025 AL MVP?
If Judge had not suffered his injury, he would likely be the overwhelming favorite for the MVP award. Despite Raleigh’s power surge and impressive home run totals, Judge’s wRC+ exceeds Raleigh’s by over 40 points, with an OPS+ of 211 compared to Raleigh’s 168. This gap underscores Judge’s superior overall offensive value.
As long as Judge can participate in the majority of the Yankees’ remaining games, his comprehensive statistical lead makes him the strongest candidate to repeat as AL MVP. Should his health decline further or limit his playing time significantly, Raleigh’s continued power production and impact may tip the scales in his favor.
For now, the race remains wide open, offering an exciting contest for fans and bettors alike as these two All-Stars vie for baseball’s most coveted individual honor.