Monday’s Major League Baseball schedule features 11 games, presenting strong opportunities for bettors to focus on home run prop bets. Among the selected players, Milwaukee Brewers’ William Contreras stands out with promising odds at +400, making his home run prop an attractive choice. Additionally, New York Yankees star Aaron Judge and St. Louis Cardinals slugger Alec Burleson offer compelling picks for those seeking to maximize returns.
Given the difficulty in predicting home runs, the SI Betting team highlights top picks daily throughout the MLB season, providing insight into the most favorable prop bets worth considering on any game day.
William Contreras’ Hot Streak Bolsters His Home Run Prop Value
William Contreras has been in exceptional form for the Brewers, hitting two home runs on Sunday against the New York Mets and accumulating three homers over his last two games. Over the past 14 days, Contreras has tallied six home runs while maintaining a strong batting average of .354 and an OPS of 1.217.
On Monday, he faces the Pittsburgh Pirates and left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney, who has surrendered 22 home runs across 23 appearances this season and holds a 4.77 ERA. Contreras has compiled a career .746 OPS against left-handed pitching and is 3-for-6 with two doubles versus Heaney. Considering these factors, his odds of +400 present a valuable opportunity for bettors anticipating a continued home run streak.
Aaron Judge Offers a Promising Bet Despite Recent Slump
Aaron Judge, the leading MVP contender for the American League, has struggled since returning from the injured list, going 3-for-15 without a home run in five games. Despite this slump, Judge’s overall season performance remains strong with 26 home runs against right-handed pitching and an impressive .341/.434/.662 slash line.
Judge faces the Minnesota Twins’ starting pitcher Zebby Matthews, who has allowed four home runs in eight starts with a 5.17 ERA. Although Judge has never faced Matthews, the Twins’ bullpen ranks seventh worst in baseball with a 4.33 ERA, creating favorable conditions for Judge to break out on Monday night. His home run prop at +165 remains an appealing pick for bettors betting on a rebound.
Alec Burleson Matches Up Well Against Colorado Rockies Pitching
Alec Burleson has been a significant power threat for the St. Louis Cardinals this season, registering 14 homers and an .812 OPS against right-handed pitching, including 12 home runs in such matchups. On Monday, he goes up against the Colorado Rockies and right-hander Chase Dollander, a recent Triple-A call-up struggling with a 6.68 ERA over 15 starts and 15 home runs allowed.
In addition, the Rockies bullpen has endured challenges, leading MLB in home runs allowed (69) and posting a 5.50 ERA. This combination of opponent pitching difficulties makes Burleson’s +360 home run prop a strategic wager for those expecting him to capitalize on a weak pitching staff.
Implications for Bettors and What to Expect Next
The William Contreras home run prop at +400 stands out as the most enticing option among Monday’s MLB betting slate, especially given his recent power surge and favorable matchup. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge and Alec Burleson also present valid prospects for bettors looking to balance risk and reward.
These prop bets highlight the importance of analyzing player form and opposing pitching to identify value in MLB betting. As the season progresses, monitoring player performance against specific pitchers and lineups will continue to be essential for informed wagering.
Odds for these bets are subject to change, and bettors should stay updated through their sportsbooks. Responsible gambling remains paramount for all participants.