For much of the season, the American League MVP award appeared all but decided, with New York Yankees’ right fielder Aaron Judge holding clear favoritism. However, Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh’s consistent and powerful performance has tightened the competition, turning the contest into a captivating two-player duel. The current betting odds highlight that only Judge and Raleigh remain as serious contenders far ahead of others like Bobby Witt Jr., José Ramírez, and Tarik Skubal.
Current betting odds in the MVP contest
According to BetMGM, Aaron Judge remains the favorite at -155 odds, while Cal Raleigh is positioned as the closest challenger at +115. These figures underscore how the showdown has condensed to these two players vying intensely for the coveted award.
Statistical comparison between Judge and Raleigh
Judge’s offensive line is impressive, boasting a slash line of .337/.448/.693 with an OPS+ of 210. His power is evident with 38 home runs, and his impact runs deep with 88 RBIs and an AL-best 94 runs scored. Additionally, he has contributed six stolen bases and 6.7 wins above replacement (WAR), powering the Yankees’ offense effectively.
Raleigh, while trailing in batting average at .245 and on-base percentage at .351, delivers significant power numbers with a .587 slugging percentage and a 165 OPS+. His 45 home runs lead the Mariners, complemented by 98 RBIs and 78 runs scored. Raleigh also stands out with 13 stolen bases and a 5.2 WAR, making him a formidable presence behind the plate.
Why Aaron Judge remains the frontrunner
Judge’s all-around excellence frames him as the premier player in the league. Although Raleigh has a higher home run total, Judge leads in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage by large margins, reflecting his overall offensive dominance. His superior slash line nearly doubles Raleigh’s marks in those categories.
Beyond the numbers, Judge’s contribution to the Yankees is irreplaceable. The team’s offensive power outside him is limited, with no player approaching his 38 homers, 88 RBIs, or 94 runs scored. The Yankees’ current playoff standing owes much to Judge’s performance, making a strong case that his presence elevates the entire roster.
Cal Raleigh’s impact and underappreciated value
The Mariners have surged since mid-June, matching the Houston Astros atop the AL West, while the Yankees have faltered, slipping from a seven-game lead in the AL East to third place. Seattle’s 34-19 record since June 12 contrasts with New York’s 22-31 slide over the same stretch, highlighting Raleigh’s role in the Mariners’ turnaround.
Raleigh has led Seattle’s offense through much of this surge, dominating team power numbers with 45 home runs and 98 RBIs, well ahead of the team’s next top contributors such as Julio Rodríguez. This offensive leadership gains extra weight considering Raleigh’s position as catcher, widely regarded as the most demanding defensive role in baseball.
The Mariners back Raleigh’s achievements in a challenging home environment. Mariners Park is known as one of the toughest ballparks for hitters, especially compared to Yankee Stadium, which ranks as one of the league’s most hitter-friendly stadiums—including for right-handed power hitters like Judge.
Historic potential and situational factors supporting Raleigh
One of Raleigh’s notable storylines is his chase of the catcher home run record set by Salvador Perez’s 48 homers. Raleigh is on pace to surpass this figure comfortably. Additionally, he approaches a potential milestone in catcher RBIs, projected to reach 132 this season—placing him among the top four catchers historically behind legends Johnny Bench, Roy Campanella, and Bill Dickey.
If the Mariners continue their stride and Raleigh increases his home run and RBI totals beyond 55 and 130 respectively, especially with the AL West title in sight, the momentum could shift more favorably toward the Mariners’ star. Meanwhile, if the Yankees slip from playoff contention and Judge’s production cools, voter fatigue after Judge’s two MVP wins in the last three years might also influence the final vote.
Outlook on the evolving MVP race
Although Judge currently holds the strongest case for the MVP award due to his elite offensive production and overall value, shifting team dynamics and Raleigh’s remarkable power numbers have transformed this into one of the season’s most compelling individual competitions. The Mariners’ rise and Raleigh’s record-breaking potential place him firmly in contention to challenge Judge in the AL MVP race.
As the postseason approaches, ongoing monitoring of team performances and individual statistics will determine whether Raleigh can overtake Judge to claim the honor or if Judge will maintain his hold on the award amid shifting narratives.