The Chicago Cubs continue to fight for a playoff spot as they navigate a disappointing stretch in 2025, despite holding the top National League Wild Card position and maintaining a 16-game advantage over .500. While the Cubs originally set higher expectations for this season, their key hitters have struggled, particularly following the All-Star break.
Players near the top of the lineup, including Pete Crow-Armstrong with a .227 batting average and a .703 OPS, alongside Kyle Tucker’s .222 average and only three extra-base hits, have found little consistency. Michael Busch’s figures are even more troubling, hitting just .153 with a .520 OPS, and the team’s RBI leader, Seiya Suzuki, carries a meager .188 average with a .626 OPS. Amid this offensive slowdown, one player has emerged as a beacon: Matt Shaw.
Understanding the Cubs’ Third Base Instability
The Cubs’ 2024 season performance reflected several challenges, finishing 83-79, tying for second in the NL Central and falling six games short of a Wild Card berth. A major factor behind this underwhelming campaign was the absence of a reliable third baseman.
In 2024, the Cubs used eight different starters at third base, illustrating the position’s instability. Christopher Morel led in starts with 74 games before being traded to Tampa Bay for All-Star Isaac Paredes, who added 50 starts. Beyond these two, other players including Michael Busch also filled in, yet none provided the consistent production needed. Collectively, this group registered a WAR of -0.4, emphasizing the need for a stronger solution at third. This backdrop set up the arrival of Matt Shaw as a potential fixture for the position in 2025.
To clear the path for Shaw, the Cubs made strategic roster moves, trading Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith to the Houston Astros for Kyle Tucker and parting ways with other versatile infielders like Miles Mastrobuoni, Patrick Wisdom, and Nick Madrigal. These roster changes signaled the organization’s confidence in Shaw to stake a claim as the everyday third baseman.
The Rising Prospect: Matt Shaw’s Early Career Progression
Matt Shaw entered the Cubs organization as the 13th overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft, selected out of the University of Maryland. His debut professional season made an immediate impression, posting a .357 batting average with an outstanding 1.018 OPS across three minor league levels.
In 2024, Shaw started at Double-A with strong numbers, batting .279/.373/.478 over 86 games, which earned him a promotion to Triple-A Iowa. There, he improved further, slashing .298/.395/.534. These performances convinced the Cubs to entrust him with a starting role on Opening Day in the Tokyo Series against the Dodgers, highlighting their high hopes for his future.
Adjusting to Major League Baseball: Early Setbacks and Development
Shaw’s initial stint in the majors proved difficult. Over 18 games, he struggled to find his rhythm, batting just .172 with a .535 OPS in 68 plate appearances. Recognizing the need for additional seasoning, the Cubs sent Shaw back to Triple-A, where he rebounded by slashing .286/.409/.560 in 24 games. Notably, Shaw improved his plate discipline, drawing 17 walks while only striking out 11 times, and reduced his strikeout rate from 19.7% in 2024 to just 10% in 2025.
Upon his recall to the major league roster on May 19, Shaw immediately showed promise, going 2-for-4 with a single and double in his first game back. His production remained strong, hitting .359 with a .906 OPS over his first 11 games during this stretch. While this suggested that Shaw might be ready to become a key contributor for the Cubs in their competitive division, a mid-season slump raised doubts about his consistency.
From June 1 through the All-Star break, Shaw’s overall performance plummeted to a .155/.215/.227 slash line, with just six extra-base hits in 121 plate appearances, causing speculation that another reassignment to Triple-A might be necessary. However, his recent surge has changed that outlook.
Matt Shaw’s Resurgence Following the All-Star Break
Since the mid-season break, Shaw has ignited the Cubs’ offense with a powerful run at the plate. In 20 games, he boasts a .328/.349/.770 slash line and an impressive 1.120 OPS. His seven home runs and 15 RBIs during this span demonstrate a newfound ability to produce power, something the Cubs’ main offensive contributors have lacked recently.
Remarkably, Shaw has logged more extra-base hits since the All-Star break than Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, and Michael Busch combined. Additionally, his strikeout rate remains lower than these teammates and Pete Crow-Armstrong, while he has driven in more runs than all four of those players in the same timeframe. This stretch has earned him substantial credibility as a significant offensive force for the Cubs moving forward.
Defensive Challenges Remain at Third Base
Despite his offensive improvements, Matt Shaw’s defense has been a source of concern. While he has flashed glimpses of potential, some impressive plays have been overshadowed by a -5 Outs Above Average (OAA) rating this season. His defensive struggles are understandable, considering that Shaw primarily played shortstop during his college career and moved around the infield in the minors.
The Cubs’ infield features experienced players such as Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner, whose mentorship could prove instrumental in helping Shaw develop into a more reliable defender at third base. Their guidance remains important as Shaw adjusts to the defensive demands at the position.
The Cubs’ Standing and Shaw’s Role Moving Forward
As the season progresses, the Cubs have dropped behind the surging Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central standings. Once leading the division, the Cubs now trail by 7.5 games, with recent performances marked by losing four out of their last six series and maintaining a close to .500 record (26-24) in their last 50 games. The offensive struggles—especially the stalled production by key lineup players—have been a significant factor in this slump. Over the past 30 days, the team’s OPS of .715 ranks only 17th in the league.
Given this difficult stretch, Shaw’s contribution has been critical in preventing further decline. The Cubs demonstrated their commitment to him early in the season by keeping him as the preferred third baseman and declined to pursue external options at the trade deadline, indicating trust in his abilities to carry the role.
The addition of versatile infielder Willi Castro provides the Cubs with a contingency option who can play multiple positions, allowing Shaw some reprieve without risking lineup stability. However, the team’s continued reliance on Shaw’s bat underscores their belief that he is the long-term answer at third base.
After an uneven start, Shaw’s recent surge has solidified his status as the Cubs’ primary third baseman for the remainder of this season and beyond. The organization’s gamble on his potential appears to be yielding results just as the team hopes to rebound in the playoff race.