The Toronto Maple Leafs are projected to regress this NHL season, following their Atlantic Division win last year. The team’s momentum was halted in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs by the Florida Panthers, and the departure of Mitch Marner, who led Toronto in points last season, has cast further doubt on their outlook.
Bleacher Report analyst Sara Civan foresees the Leafs struggling to maintain their previous success, as the team has yet to replace Marner’s significant scoring contribution.
The Leafs aren’t returning an improved roster on paper after losing Marner to the Golden Knights and failing to replace his point production on a sparse free agency market,
Civan wrote.
We’ll see how they’re doing at the trade deadline, and it should be a big year for Matthew Knies, but this year could be a step back before a step forward type scenario.
—Sara Civan, NHL analyst
Maple Leafs’ Odds and Off-Season Moves
According to DraftKings, Toronto ranks third in the Atlantic Division odds behind the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning, with a strong 79.2% chance to reach the playoffs, shown by their -380 odds. However, their chances to win the division or advance further than last season appear diminished without Marner.
Entering the new season, the Maple Leafs hold the ninth-best odds to win the Stanley Cup at +2200, trailing the New Jersey Devils but ahead of the Los Angeles Kings. This is a notable drop from last season, when Toronto was tied for fourth-best odds at +1300.
During the off-season, Toronto added players Mattias Macelli, Nic Roy, Dakota Joshua, and Michael Pezzetta to bolster depth. Still, management acknowledges that the team did not fill the void left by Marner’s departure.
When a player of Mitch’s magnitude moves away, that’s never a fun day,
said Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving.
But we were able to recoup a player who I think can really help us. And in a situation where a player was walking away this morning for nothing, we were able to recoup a player that fits a need for us…
—Brad Treliving, Maple Leafs GM
Mitch was a top-six forward, and we haven’t replaced that hole,
he added.
That’s really where our focus is.
—Brad Treliving, Maple Leafs GM
Toronto’s strategy has shifted toward improving team depth and physicality to become a tougher opponent on the ice.
Expert Viewplaces Maple Leafs Among Top Ten Stanley Cup Contenders
While Sara Civan predicts some regression for the Maple Leafs, she still ranks them as the ninth-best Stanley Cup contender this season due to their strong roster despite Marner’s loss.
The failures of the Toronto Maple Leafs are about much more than just on-ice stats and happenings — they’re about the pressure of the market, the core four’s offense drying up when the postseason rolls around, and the lack of that intangible oomph
they are desperately searching for in this era,” Civan wrote. —Sara Civan, NHL analyst
On paper, Mitch Marner is one of the best two-way forwards in the game and a 100+ point player. In reality, the team couldn’t get it done in the core four era, partially due to the combination of key players and the ability to handle pressure,
Civan added.
The Leafs aren’t making leaps and bounds while losing a player that has been a team centerpiece for years, but they are certainly entering a new era and moving on from a disappointing vibe that has haunted them for years. Shedding that counts for something.
—Sara Civan, NHL analyst
Looking Ahead to the New Season
The Maple Leafs will begin their 2025 NHL campaign on October 8, facing off against the Montreal Canadiens. The season’s start is an important moment to assess how the team adapts to life without Mitch Marner and whether new acquisitions can fill critical roles.
Toronto’s performance this season could signal if the changes will lead to future progress or confirm fears of a temporary setback. With pressures mounting and expectations still high, the team’s ability to respond will shape the outlook for fans and analysts alike.