Breece Hall’s fantasy football stock has dropped unexpectedly this offseason, creating what could be a rare value opportunity for fantasy managers targeting the 2025 season. While many analysts chase higher-profile players, Hall is quietly sliding to a typical fourth-round average draft position (ADP), despite the potential to produce as a first-round talent.

Understanding the Gap Between Draft Position and Actual Worth

Currently, Hall is being selected in the middle of the fourth round in standard user drafts, which is roughly a full round later than his overall industry ADP. This discrepancy highlights a market inefficiency where casual fantasy players may be securing better value than experts who have pushed his stock down. Although Hall’s 2024 season showed a decline in efficiency on a per-rush and per-touch basis, there is significant context behind these numbers. Defenses were less likely to load the box against him last year—dropping from 36.8% stacked boxes in prior seasons to only 27.8%—yet his performance still slipped.

The Impact of Justin Fields on Hall’s Role

The arrival of quarterback Justin Fields adds both upside potential and concerns to Hall’s 2025 outlook. Since Fields became a starter, his offenses have run about 3% fewer snaps per game compared to other units, which could reduce Hall’s opportunities by approximately 15 to 20 touches over a 17-game season. Fields’ dual-threat style is expected to open running lanes for Hall, but it also means that designed quarterback runs and red zone chances will be shared. Fields’ rushing ability could limit the number of goal-line carries Hall receives, which normally are key for running backs’ fantasy production.

Facing Competition and Uncertain Workload

Braelon Allen’s strong showing last season further complicates Hall’s prospects. Allen’s combination of power and versatility suggests he could claim a significant role in the offense, especially if the overall snap count decreases under Fields. To make his fourth-round ADP worthwhile, Hall must rebound his efficiency and outperform last season’s numbers, or fantasy managers may see limited returns despite his draft cost.

Nevertheless, Hall is an exceptionally talented back entering his prime, and if he can regain his rookie-season effectiveness while adjusting to Fields’ offensive system, his potential upside is substantial. True RB1 production rarely comes so affordable in the fourth round, positioning Breece Hall as one of the most compelling fantasy running backs available in 2025.