Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers has become a hot commodity among fantasy football managers heading into the 2025 season, with many investing heavily in the Brock Bowers fantasy draft gamble. The former Georgia standout, who shattered rookie records last year including most receiving yards and receptions by a tight end, is now typically selected in the second round by PFSN’s Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator users. This upward draft movement reflects growing confidence but also brings greater risk.
Concerns Over Offensive Volume in Las Vegas
While the surge in Bowers’ draft stock is driven by his impressive rookie campaign, a closer look at Las Vegas’s passing game raises caution. Quarterback Geno Smith, who joined the Raiders last season, rarely targeted multiple players heavily during his tenure with the Seattle Seahawks in 2024. Except for a standout overtime game against New England, Smith only directed nine or more catches to a single receiver once all season.
This limited target volume worsened as the season wore on. Smith supported just two 100-yard receiving games after September, signaling constrained opportunities in Las Vegas’ aerial attack. Such scarcity in target distribution might hinder Bowers from achieving the consistent high usage needed to justify his increased draft cost among fantasy football managers.
Historic Rookie Efficiency Sets Bowers Apart
Despite the challenges posed by limited total targets, Bowers delivered remarkable efficiency when given the ball during his inaugural NFL season. He posted four games with 10 or more receptions, a feat unprecedented for a rookie tight end in recent decades. Since 2000, only eight instances of a rookie tight end recording double-digit catches in a game exist, with Bowers responsible for half of these performances. The others were split between Jeremy Shockey (two games), Dalton Kincaid, and Jace Amaro.
This level of production highlights Bowers’ exceptional route-running and dependable hands, allowing him to make the most of every opportunity and stand out even in a restricting system.
Impact of Game Situations on Bowers’ Fantasy Potential
The Raiders’ broader competitive struggles also shape Bowers’ fantasy outlook. Finishing 29th last season in lead percentage, Las Vegas spent much of its games trailing. While teams behind tend to pass more, this dynamic is not straightforward for Bowers. Should the Raiders improve and gain leads more consistently, their offensive strategy might pivot toward a more balanced attack, reducing the frequency of desperation passes that inflated receiving numbers last season.
This potential shift means that even as the Raiders get better, Bowers might face fewer targets, complicating the evaluation of his 2025 fantasy value. The tension between his elite rookie efficiency and the systemic limitations of the Raiders’ offense presents fantasy managers with a difficult decision.
Evaluating the Risk and Reward of Selecting Bowers
The Brock Bowers fantasy draft gamble is compelling due to his proven talent and record-setting rookie season, but it comes with notable risks linked to team context and game script. The quarterback’s historical usage patterns, combined with likely offensive shifts if the Raiders improve, suggest that volume might not keep pace with Bowers’ rising draft price. Fantasy managers must weigh his demonstrated potential against these systemic concerns to decide if selecting him in earlier rounds is a smart move for 2025.