As fantasy football managers prepare for the 2025 NFL season, certain running backs hold enticing average draft positions (ADPs) that may not reflect their true value. Christian McCaffrey, a former fantasy powerhouse, faces several challenges that could diminish his impact this year. At 29 years old, recovering from an injury-plagued 2024 season and competing with San Francisco 49ers rookie Isaac Guerendo, McCaffrey’s fantasy prospects raise concern among players seeking reliable contributors.

Alongside McCaffrey, eight other running backs have ADPs that may be misleading due to factors such as team dynamics, age, competition for touches, and offense schemes. Evaluating these running backs’ situations highlights why fantasy managers might want to reconsider drafting them at their current ADPs.

Key Running Backs to Be Cautious About in 2025

Breece Hall showed promise after missing only one game in 2024, finishing with 876 rushing yards on 209 carries and five touchdowns. However, the arrival of a mobile quarterback like Justin Fields has changed the Jets’ offensive landscape, potentially reducing Hall’s opportunities. Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis, both showing potential, add to the competition Hall faces, which may hinder his fantasy value.

Christian McCaffrey’s injury struggles in 2024 limited him to just four games, where he managed 202 rushing yards and no touchdowns. Now entering his late twenties, McCaffrey could see fewer opportunities as Isaac Guerendo emerges in San Francisco. This combination suggests his fantasy production may not rebound to past levels.

James Conner experienced a career resurgence with the Arizona Cardinals, carrying the ball 236 times for over 1,000 yards and scoring eight touchdowns in 2024. Yet, Conner will be 30 during the upcoming season, and the development of younger players like Marvin Harrison Jr., plus improved quarterback play from Kyler Murray, might reduce his offensive role and fantasy upside.

D’Andre Swift’s role with the Detroit Lions has shifted under coach Ben Johnson’s offense, which tends to use a committee approach. Swift is sharing carries with David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, lowering his individual workload. The potential for Roschon Johnson to see an increase in carries also threatens Swift’s fantasy football impact.

Rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. shocked the league by rushing 192 times for 839 yards and five touchdowns for the New York Giants during injuries to Devin Singletary. However, rookie Cam Skattebo’s standout training camp performances could cut into Tracy’s opportunities, or they might split touches—both scenarios negatively affect Tracy’s fantasy ceiling.

Complicated Backfields and Injury Concerns Affect Other Running Backs

J.K. Dobbins is now part of a crowded Denver Broncos running back group after signing with the team in the offseason. The presence of RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin clouds Dobbins’ chances for a dominant role, as Denver typically shares the workload among multiple backs. His previous dominance appears to be waning, complicating his fantasy outlook.

Joe Mixon enjoyed one of his best scoring seasons recently with 11 touchdowns for the Houston Texans, but he faces uncertainty. Sharing touches with Nick Chubb, who is recovering from a serious 2023 knee injury, adds instability to the backfield. Additionally, Mixon’s own health is a question mark as he may need extra time to recover before the season starts, prompting caution for fantasy managers.

Javonte Williams, who carried the ball 139 times last season, works in a committee alongside Jaleel McLaughlin, who had 113 rush attempts. Williams faces competition from rookie teammate Jayden Blue, who is expected to push for touches. Although Williams has a slight edge due to his experience, his fantasy potential will likely be limited by this shared role in Dallas.

The Broader Implications for Fantasy Football Managers in 2025

The 2025 fantasy football season presents a challenging landscape for managers targeting running backs with appealing ADPs that may not correlate with strong production. Players like Christian McCaffrey, despite past elite performances, face hurdles from age, injuries, and evolving team dynamics. The rise of younger talent and the growing prevalence of committee backfields further complicate predicting consistent fantasy contributions.

Fantasy managers should carefully weigh these challenges before drafting high-profile running backs who might underperform relative to their ADPs. Staying informed about shifting team roles, injury updates, and the development of competing players will be essential to navigating the running back position in 2025.

“The terrible season could have ramifications in 2025 and considering that he’s 29, McCaffrey might be entering the final stretch of his career.” — Fantasy Analyst
“Adding a mobile quarterback like Justin Fields changed the dynamics of the Jets and Hall could be the biggest loser in this situation.” — NFL Insider
“This is a complex situation for fantasy football managers.” — Fantasy Football Expert
“Mixon’s health is a big question mark and fantasy football managers should be wary about picking him.” — Sports Commentator