As the MLB season passes its midpoint, the New York Yankees and New York Mets both face uncertain paths to the postseason. The Yankees, once holding a commanding seven-game lead in their division, have slipped to third place, while the Mets trail the Philadelphia Phillies by five games, making their playoff prospects precarious. This ongoing struggle sets the stage for discussions about which team has the better chance to reach October baseball.

Experts Debate Which New York Team Holds the Advantage

ESPN MLB analysts Jeff Passan, Jorge Castillo, Buster Olney, and Jesse Rogers have weighed in on the postseason outlook for both teams. While Castillo and Rogers expressed significant concern about the Yankees’ future, they acknowledged the Mets as the stronger squad on paper for the playoffs.

“Don’t count the Mets out. They have a run in them,”

said Jesse Rogers, highlighting the Mets’ potential to turn their season around.

On the other hand, Passan and Olney point to the competitive environments within each league to explain their differing perspectives.

“It’s as if the Mets have to run a double marathon and the Yankees are doing a corporate fun run. The Yankees have a better shot of lasting because the challenge is simply not the same,”

Buster Olney wrote, underscoring the relative strength of the American League compared to the National League.

League Competitiveness Influences Playoff Forecasts

Passan concurs with Olney’s assessment, noting that if the playoffs began today, the Yankees would face a Houston Astros team plagued by injuries. Although the Astros remain a difficult opponent, Passan believes this matchup favors New York to some extent.

“If the playoffs started today, the Yankees would face a banged-up Houston Astros team – always a tough series, yes, but a winnable one,”

he wrote.

At the end of the day, I believe the Mets are a slightly superior team to the Yankees, but because of the competition in each league, the Yankees’ chance of advancing slightly exceeds that of their crosstown rivals.

The National League hosts several dominant teams, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, and Milwaukee Brewers, all with top records, heightening the difficulty for the Mets. Both New York clubs have limited margin for error, as any prolonged losing streak could dash their postseason hopes.

The Path Forward for the Yankees and Mets Remains Uncertain

Ultimately, the intense competition within their leagues and current standings leave the Yankees and Mets in precarious positions as the regular season approaches its final stretch. For fans watching Juan Soto’s impact with both the Yankees and Mets postseason possibilities at stake, every game counts in the race to October survival. How these teams respond to pressure and maintain focus will likely decide who secures a playoff berth.