NHL analyst Bryan Hayes has suggested that Auston Matthews may be entering a phase of his career where his goal-scoring numbers are expected to decline, echoing the career trajectories of hockey legends Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux. After a standout 2023-24 season with 69 goals, Matthews’ recent output has shown signs of tapering, sparking debate about his future scoring potential.

Following his Rocket Richard Trophy-winning 69-goal season, Matthews dealt with injuries last year, finishing with 33 goals over 67 games for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Speaking on TSN‘s FanDuel Overdrive, Hayes expressed a cautious forecast regarding Matthews’ upcoming seasons, noting a possible reduction in his goal totals.

Hayes explained that although Matthews remains one of the NHL’s most lethal finishers, he expects his goal count to hover below the 40-goal mark more often than not. He elaborated on this by saying,

“I think it’s more likely it’s less than 40 [goals]. We just saw it. Now, if I had to make a bet, I think he chases down 50 this year. He’s somewhere in the middle.”

The analyst linked this projection to a common pattern observed among elite scorers, where players experience their peak statistical performances within their first eight or so years, followed by gradual declines.

“Most players, especially the elite elite players, the guys who put up ridiculous statistics, they do that their first six, seven, eight years in the league and then it slowly falls off,” he added.

Hayes specifically referenced Gretzky and Lemieux, who both showcased extraordinary scoring in the early stages of their careers but later shifted their focus as their goal production diminished.

“Gretzky, his first seven, eight years was unbelievable and then it kind of dropped. Mario Lemieux, that’s just the way it goes. Guys get 10 years into their career. It doesn’t mean they’re still not great. It means they usually focus on different areas of their game.”

While maintaining that Matthews remains the most dangerous pure goal scorer in the game, Hayes cautioned that Matthews may no longer be a consistent favorite to win the Rocket Richard Trophy every season. Instead, he forecasted Matthews would likely settle near 40 goals most years, with occasional seasons reaching into the low to mid-50s.

Bryan Hayes Questions Future 60-Goal Seasons for Matthews Without Key Teammate

Hayes also expressed skepticism regarding Matthews’ ability to replicate his two previous 60-goal campaigns, particularly without the playmaking presence of Mitch Marner, who was recently traded to the Vegas Golden Knights. Marner’s contributions had been integral to Matthews’ scoring success in past seasons.

“So, like to expect Matthews to do it a third time without Marner at this stage in his career, I just think it’s very, I think it’s asking way too much,” Hayes concluded.

Highlighting the rarity of 60-goal seasons in the NHL, Hayes noted that only a few players such as Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, and Connor McDavid have achieved this milestone once in recent years. This underscores the challenge Matthews faces in reaching this elite scoring tier again.

The discussion around Auston Matthews’ goal-scoring trajectory remains a focal point for NHL observers and fans alike as the next season approaches. How Matthews adapts and whether he can maintain his elite scoring reputation without Marner will be pivotal storylines to watch.