Coco Gauff’s unexpected defeat at the Cincinnati Open 2025 may pave the way for Iga Swiatek to claim the No. 2 seeding at the upcoming US Open. Gauff lost her quarterfinal match to Jasmine Paolini after losing a one-set lead, altering the dynamics of the US Open seeding race and giving Swiatek a chance to overtake her in the rankings.
Gauff’s loss means she will hold 7,874 points when the rankings update next week, but Swiatek, currently third with 6,933 points, has moved closer by reaching the semifinals in Cincinnati, holding at least 7,323 points. To surpass Gauff and secure the second seed, Swiatek must win the Cincinnati title, which would boost her total points to 7,933, edging past Gauff’s tally and allowing her to avoid facing World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka before the US Open final.
Swiatek’s Path to the Cincinnati Open Semifinals
Iga Swiatek advanced to the semifinals of the Cincinnati Open without dropping a set, benefiting from a first-round bye and a walkover from Marta Kostyuk. She defeated Anastasia Potapova in the second round and followed that with a win over Sorana Cirstea in the fourth round. In the quarterfinals, Swiatek beat 28th seed Anna Kalinskaya 6-3, 6-4, setting up a semifinal against Elena Rybakina.
Rybakina, who eliminated defending champion Aryna Sabalenka in her quarterfinal match, will face Swiatek, who holds a 5-4 head-to-head advantage, having won their last three matches this year. Their most recent clash occurred at the French Open, where Swiatek completed a comeback to defend her title. After falling in the Cincinnati semifinals the past two years, Swiatek is motivated to break through this time.
Implications of Seeding on the US Open Draw
The battle for the No. 2 seed is crucial, as this seeding determines the draw dynamics at the US Open. The second seed side avoids meeting top-ranked Aryna Sabalenka until the final, which could enhance Swiatek’s chances in New York if she earns that spot. With Gauff’s early exit, Swiatek’s chances have improved, but she still must secure the Cincinnati title to confirm the second seed position.
Swiatek’s strong showing at Cincinnati, paired with Gauff’s unexpected loss, has intensified the competition as the US Open approaches. Winning the Cincinnati title would not only improve her ranking but also boost her confidence entering one of the season’s grandest tournaments.