Buffalo Bills running back James Cook emerged as one of the more intriguing players in the 2024 fantasy football landscape after a surprising leap in touchdown production. Following a 2023 season that positioned him as a solid RB2 but not a game-changing option, Cook exceeded expectations by delivering consistent fantasy points in 2024, raising important questions for managers about his James Cook fantasy football outlook for 2025.
Despite entering 2024 with some skepticism regarding his role as the Bills’ lead back, Cook turned heads by becoming a significant touchdown threat. Although his opportunity share and target share slightly declined, his touchdown totals nearly doubled compared to his first two seasons combined. This transformation made him a valuable fantasy asset and adjusted his draft price accordingly.
Dissecting What Fueled Cook’s 2024 Breakout
James Cook’s 2024 success did not come from increased volume or more targets. His overall opportunities dropped from 291 in 2023 to 245 in 2024, and his target share also slipped from 9.9% to 8.1%. However, the critical factor behind his breakout was a dramatic change in his role near the goal line. Whereas Cook had minimal usage inside the five-yard line in 2023, with just five carries and two rushing touchdowns for the entire season, his 2024 campaign featured 15 such carries and seven rushing touchdowns from that close range.
This surge in goal line touchdown opportunities accounted for most of Cook’s 16 rushing touchdowns in 2024, marking a shift in the Bills’ offensive approach. Previously, quarterback Josh Allen was the primary goal line back, but Cook’s increased trust in short-yardage and red-zone situations solidified his touchdown-scoring volume.
Evaluating Cook’s Touchdown Sustainability for 2025
James Cook’s touchdown-heavy 2024 season has owners wondering if such efficiency can carry over into 2025. While his talent is undeniable, he doesn’t generate enough volume to rely solely on yardage for high-end fantasy production. Given the naturally volatile nature of touchdown rates for running backs, expecting another 18-touchdown season is unrealistic, but a moderate touchdown count around 10 seems plausible.
The Bills’ backfield remains largely unchanged, with Cook as the undisputed starter, supported by Ty Johnson and Ray Davis. However, these teammates are likely to limit any substantial volume increase. Cook’s 2023 performance, driven by his opportunity share, aligns more closely with baseline expectations, while 2024’s production was boosted by notable efficiency gains.
From a fantasy perspective, volume has proven to be the most reliable indicator of running back success. Cook averaged 0.8 fantasy points per opportunity in 2023, ranking 31st among running backs, compared to a career-best 1.09 points last year, which was eighth in the league. Reliance on high efficiency to drive fantasy value is riskier than securing opportunities.
Given the Bills’ balanced offensive philosophy and preference to keep Josh Allen as a goal-line option only when necessary, Cook’s red-zone chances may stabilize rather than expand. Still, the premium placed on his goal-line role means fantasy managers can expect decent touchdown upside, even if it tapers off slightly.
James Cook’s Expected Role and Value in the 2025 Season
Heading into 2025, James Cook appears poised to maintain his RB2 standing with low-end RB1 upside if circumstances align perfectly. His current average draft position reflects his status as a fourth-round pick or RB14 overall, which some consider a bargain given his touchdown potential.
Despite concerns about his workload and touchdown regression, Cook only needs to replicate his 2023 production level to deliver adequate value for this cost. Securing him in this draft range is a relatively safe move given the volatility and bust rates common at this stage.
The Bills’ offense, recognized as one of the NFL’s best, is likely to keep utilizing Cook strategically, especially near the end zone. His recent contract extension underscores the team’s commitment to him as a key offensive weapon and a focal point in scoring situations.
Expert Analysis: Dan Fornek’s Perspective on Cook’s 2025 Prospects
Fantasy analyst Dan Fornek highlights 2024 as the season that showcased James Cook’s touchdown-scoring ceiling, with 207 carries, 1,009 rushing yards, and a league-best 16 rushing touchdowns. His consistent presence in the passing game with 38 targets, 32 receptions, 258 yards, and two receiving touchdowns helped him finish as the RB11 based on points per game.
However, Fornek notes that Cook’s opportunities dipped due to the Bills incorporating rookie Ray Davis and pass-catching back Ty Johnson into their rotation. This, along with Cook’s decline to a career-low 5.3 yards per touch, limits his upside potential. Still, with the recent four-year, $48 million extension securing his role, Cook is expected to see significant usage in Buffalo’s efficient offense.
Fornek cautions that repeating such a prolific touchdown season is difficult, suggesting that Cook’s 2025 fantasy success will rely heavily on whether his volume increases, which remains uncertain given the presence of other capable backs. Nonetheless, Cook’s established talent and proven scoring ability position him firmly as an RB2, with the possibility for low-end RB1 performance if circumstances align.
“2024 was the season where we finally saw what would happen if the Bills allowed Cook to score touchdowns. Cook handled 207 carries for 1,009 yards and a league-leading 16 rushing touchdowns. He also maintained a solid presence in the passing attack (38 targets, 32 receptions, 258 yards, and two touchdowns). That allowed him to finish the season as the RB11 in points per game (16.7).” —Dan Fornek, Fantasy Analyst
“There is a very good chance that 2024 is the best fantasy season that we see out of James Cook. It is hard for running backs to repeat a huge touchdown season, which means he will need to see volume in the offense increase. That is hard to fathom with other good options in the backfield.” —Dan Fornek, Fantasy Analyst
“Cook will likely be an RB2 in 2025, but we know he has low-end RB1 upside if everything hits perfectly.” —Dan Fornek, Fantasy Analyst
What This Means for Fantasy Managers Targeting Cook
As fantasy football managers prepare for the 2025 drafts, James Cook represents a compelling option with a proven touchdown ability that elevates his value beyond what his usage might suggest. His current draft price is lower than it was before his breakout, potentially signaling an undervaluation by the market.
While touchdown regression is almost certain, the Bills’ offense is unlikely to diminish Cook’s goal-line role significantly, keeping him in play as a reliable scorer. Fantasy managers willing to accept a touchdown total closer to 10 rather than 18 can view Cook as a stable RB2 with upside for higher production if the Bills’ offensive dynamics shift.
Ultimately, Cook’s 2025 season hinges on whether he can maintain efficiency and if the backfield volume supports continued scoring opportunities. His status as Buffalo’s lead back and recent contract extension indicate the team’s confidence, suggesting Cook will remain a valuable fantasy asset in the near future.