Max Verstappen recently ended speculation about transferring to Mercedes, confirming he will stay with Red Bull for the 2025 Formula 1 season. The decision comes amid a challenging campaign where Verstappen trails championship leader Oscar Piastri by 97 points, raising questions about his future prospects and salary. Seven-time Grand Prix winner Juan Pablo Montoya suggested that a significant financial setback—possibly a $50 million reduction in potential earnings—may explain Verstappen’s loyalty to Red Bull despite the team’s declining performance.
How F1 2025 Performance Has Influenced Verstappen’s Market Value
The ongoing 2025 season has seen McLaren rise as the dominant team, leaving Verstappen’s chances of clinching a fifth consecutive World Championship in serious doubt. Unlike 2024, when Verstappen capitalized on Red Bull’s fading dominance to secure his fourth straight title, the current campaign is marked by stiff competition and regulatory changes looming for 2026. This situation revived rumors of Verstappen possibly switching to Mercedes, which recently demonstrated superior engine performance by delivering eight consecutive Constructors’ titles from 2014-2021. Meanwhile, Red Bull is preparing to become an engine manufacturer alongside Ford beginning in 2026.
Montoya proposed that the declining performance may have severely diminished Verstappen’s bargaining power during contract negotiations.
“I don’t think he had a choice,”
Montoya said when discussing Verstappen’s continued commitment to Red Bull.
“If I was negotiating with Max last year when he was winning the World Championship, let’s say, it would have cost $100m. This year he’s in a struggling car. The number could be $50m. Maybe that was the reason he stayed.”
Montoya further speculated on the negotiating dynamics:
“Maybe Max thought he was going to get [$50m] and whoever was speaking to him would have the upper hand, knowing that Max would want them more than they want Max.”
He emphasized how the financial landscape shifted drastically from last year to now.
“Tell him, if you want to be here, this is the number. Toto could offer Max half what he would have needed to last year.”
—Juan Pablo Montoya, Seven-Time Grand Prix Winner
Understanding Salaries and Contracts in F1 for 2025
In 2025, top Formula 1 drivers’ salaries remain a topic of intense discussion, with leading figures commanding multi-million-dollar deals. Verstappen’s situation highlights how performance directly affects contract negotiations, particularly under a competitive market where driver value hinges on recent achievements and team prospects. Financial terms often feature performance-related exit clauses that can influence a driver’s decision to stay or switch teams.
Why Verstappen Decided to Stay at Red Bull Despite Mercedes’ Interest
Earlier rumors surrounding Verstappen’s possible move to Mercedes partially stemmed from speculation about a performance-related exit clause in his existing Red Bull contract. It was understood that if Verstappen had been trailing fourth or lower in the Drivers’ Championship at the summer break, he could have triggered this clause to explore other options. However, Verstappen entered the summer break securely placed third, which nullified this possibility.
The turning point came before the Hungarian Grand Prix, after which Verstappen publicly dismissed speculation about leaving Red Bull. When questioned, Verstappen unequivocally confirmed his intent to remain with the team for 2026. He explained,
“Yeah. It’s quite interesting to follow all that, the amount of nice stories certainly that came out of it. But for me, I’ve never really said anything about it because I was just focused on talking to the team about how we can improve our performance, future ideas for next year as well, and that’s why I have nothing really to add ever.”
He emphasized the importance of focusing on the team’s development rather than entertaining rumors:
“But I think it’s time to basically stop all the rumours and, for me, it’s always been quite clear that I was staying anyway. I think that was also the general feeling in the team anyway, because we were always in discussions about what we could do with the car.”
Verstappen also highlighted his consistent engagement with Red Bull as evidence of his commitment:
“I think when you’re not interested in staying then you also stop talking about these kind of things – and I never did.”
—Max Verstappen, Red Bull F1 Driver
The Broader Impact of Verstappen’s Contract and 2025 Season on F1
Verstappen’s decision to remain with Red Bull, despite declining form and lucrative offers from Mercedes, underlines the complex interplay between driver performance, financial negotiations, and team loyalty in Formula 1. This case illustrates how a driver’s current season and potential earning power directly impact contractual outcomes, shaping the dynamics of future team lineups and competitiveness.
Looking ahead, Red Bull’s forthcoming role as an engine manufacturer alongside Ford, starting in 2026, may provide a renewed platform for Verstappen to reclaim dominance. Simultaneously, Mercedes’ pursuit of Verstappen demonstrates their ongoing strategy to regain supremacy in the changing regulatory landscape. Verstappen’s $50 million pay cut theory shed light on the financial pressures top drivers face when sporting form fluctuates.