Former Formula 1 team principal Guenther Steiner has predicted that four-time world champion Max Verstappen will agree to a multi-year contract with Mercedes starting in 2026. This speculation comes amid ongoing difficulties for Red Bull Racing and open discussions about Verstappen’s future as Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff confirms that transfer talks for the 2026 season remain active.
Despite rumors, Verstappen declared at the Hungarian Grand Prix that he plans to continue with Red Bull through the 2026 season, signaling his commitment to leading the Milton Keynes team into a new era. However, speculation about his long-term future persists, in part due to clauses in Verstappen’s Red Bull contract allowing him to leave if the team fails to provide a championship-winning car.
Guenther Steiner suggests that Verstappen’s move to Mercedes could come after the 2026 season, with a new contract potentially beginning for the 2027 campaign.
Max knows he has the option to leave Red Bull at the end of 2026,
Steiner told Web.de.
That gives him the most flexibility. If Red Bull proves surprisingly strong, then he’s in the right place. If not, he can see who’s leading and switch teams.
If Mercedes is strong from 2026 onwards, he’ll sign a multi-year contract there. It would be much riskier to move now and sign a long-term deal.
Challenges facing Verstappen’s current team, Red Bull
The 2026 season is set to introduce significant regulation changes across Formula 1, offering Verstappen a chance to assess which team has best adapted to the new rules. Mercedes is widely expected to make considerable advancements, fueling rumors of their competitiveness in the evolving landscape. Meanwhile, Red Bull remains optimistic due to their collaboration with Ford on a new power unit.
Leadership changes have also affected Red Bull, with Laurent Mekies recently replacing Christian Horner as team principal. Steiner remains doubtful that these changes will be enough to restore Red Bull’s dominance and retain Verstappen beyond 2026.
It could take years, Steiner remarked. Right now, things are going in the wrong direction rather than the right direction at Red Bull. Laurent Mekies faces a huge task.
Good people have left and flown to other teams. He now has to bring in new top talent, and that’s difficult. Moreover, Red Bull is building its own power unit with Ford, that’s a huge project. The first year certainly won’t go smoothly, they’ll be at the front in 2026, but not at the very top. There’s still a gap to the top.
Significance of Verstappen’s decision amid F1 landscape changes
Verstappen’s choice regarding his future contract will likely influence the competitive balance of Formula 1 for years to come. Mercedes appears to be positioning itself as the leading force in the post-2026 regulation era, while Red Bull faces the challenges of rebuilding a power unit and adapting to new leadership. Verstappen’s contractual clauses give him the flexibility to pursue the most competitive environment, underscoring the importance of sustained performance for Red Bull.
The coming months and the 2026 season itself will reveal which teams have best solved the regulatory puzzles, setting the stage for potential major driver movements. Verstappen’s tenure at Mercedes could reshape championship dynamics and intensify the rivalry between these top teams as the decade progresses.