A trusted predictive model has projected another disappointing season for Raheem Mostert in 2025, raising concerns about his reliability as a Fantasy football asset. This Raheem Mostert fantasy bust prediction comes after his significant drop in productivity last year, despite a strong 2023 performance. Fantasy owners should carefully evaluate Mostert’s potential risk before drafting him in the upcoming season.
Examining Raheem Mostert’s Decline and the Model’s Accuracy
Raheem Mostert’s 2024 season sharply contrasted with his breakout 2023 campaign. After rushing for over 1,000 yards and scoring 21 total touchdowns amid a shared backfield role, Mostert struggled the following year. His production fell to just 439 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, placing him as the 60th-ranked running back in Fantasy points, far below his draft position of RB23. The computer model that forecasted this decline has an established history of accurately projecting Fantasy outcomes, including identifying top sleepers and busts in previous seasons.
This model has previously highlighted players like A.J. Brown as sleepers in 2020 and correctly anticipated Jonathan Taylor’s breakout year in 2021. It also predicted a downturn for C.J. Stroud in 2024 and has called other notable Fantasy seasons from stars such as Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Davante Adams in earlier years. Its proven ability to forecast player performance adds weight to its caution around Mostert for 2025.
Other Potential Running Back Busts Projected for 2025
In addition to Mostert, the model points to other running backs at high risk of underperforming in 2025. One is J.K. Dobbins of the Denver Broncos. Despite a career-best season in 2024 with 1,058 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns while with the Chargers, Dobbins has struggled with injuries throughout his career. He has missed numerous games in recent years and now faces a crowded Broncos backfield, with competition from rookie RJ Harvey, along with returning backs Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime. The presence of multiple capable runners suggests a committee approach, reducing Dobbins’ potential workload and lowering his Fantasy value.
Another player identified as a bust is Jaylen Warren from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Warren spent his first two <a href="https://www.buzzineintl.com/category/football/nfl/”>NFL seasons backing up Najee Harris and averaged fewer than nine rushing attempts per game, limiting his opportunities despite a solid yards-per-carry average. With Harris no longer on Pittsburgh’s roster, Warren might seem poised for a larger role, but the team has added running back Kaleb Johnson, a collegiate standout with over 1,500 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns last season. This fresh competition threatens to cap Warren’s volume, and the model suggests he will not live up to his draft position, especially compared to backs selected later like Zach Charbonnet and Javonte Williams.
Insights on 2025 Fantasy Running Back Draft Strategy
For Fantasy owners assessing their 2025 draft plans, the model provides critical guidance beyond identifying busts. It advises caution around one of the first five running backs typically chosen early, predicting this player will fall outside the top 10 in Fantasy production. While the specific player is not publicly named, this insight encourages a more measured approach in selecting early-round backs.
Players like Christian McCaffrey continue to generate strong buzz for 2025, despite a history of injuries. His average draft position (ADP) as the ninth overall pick reflects confidence in his ability when healthy. However, owners should weigh the risk, given his inconsistent availability over the past seasons. Alternatives such as Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, and De’Von Achane are also available with similar ADPs and may represent safer bets.
Projected 2025 Fantasy Football Player Rankings and ADP
The early 2025 Fantasy football ADP outlines the perceived top players for PPR formats, with Ja’Marr Chase leading the pack, followed by Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Christian McCaffrey ranks ninth, while other highly drafted running backs include De’Von Achane and Derrick Henry. These ADPs reflect current expectations but are subject to change as training camps progress and preseason evaluations are completed.
1. Ja’Marr Chase (1.78)
2. Bijan Robinson (2.62)
3. Saquon Barkley (3.14)
4. Jahmyr Gibbs (4.26)
5. Justin Jefferson (7.20)
6. CeeDee Lamb (7.83)
7. Derrick Henry (10.14)
8. De’Von Achane (10.42)
9. Christian McCaffrey (11.09)
10. Malik Nabers (12.87)
What Fantasy Managers Should Consider Moving Forward
The persistence of injury concerns combined with evolving team dynamics and depth charts makes high-risk running backs like Raheem Mostert and others a gamble in 2025 Fantasy football drafts. The proven model’s ability to anticipate these busts offers valuable insight for managers looking to optimize their rosters. By steering clear of players projected to underperform or face limited roles, owners can better position themselves to avoid the costly mistakes that impacted many in the previous season.
Ultimately, embracing data-driven Fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets from trusted sources will be crucial to navigating the complexities of the 2025 season. The model’s history suggests that relying on its predictions can provide an edge, helping managers avoid repeating the errors of the past and maximizing their chances of Fantasy success.