This Sunday night’s MLB game features the Seattle Mariners facing the New York Mets in a unique setting: Williamsport, Pennsylvania, home of the Little League World Series. Unlike typical match locations in Seattle or New York, this third and final game in their three-game series will determine both the series winner and the champion of this year’s Little League Classic. The Mariners clinched the opening game 11-9 on Friday, while the Mets responded with a 3-1 victory on Saturday. The decisive game will begin at 7:10 p.m. ET and air on ESPN.

Pitching Matchup Sets the Stage for a Crucial Game

Seattle will send George Kirby to the mound, who holds an 8-5 record with a 3.71 ERA this season, while New York counters with Clay Holmes, who is also 9-6 with a 3.71 ERA. Kirby has been impressive recently, allowing just one run over seven innings in his latest outing against the Baltimore Orioles. Conversely, Holmes struggled in his last start, surrendering five runs over 3.2 innings versus the Atlanta Braves. These contrasting performances will be critical as both teams vie for the series title in this high-stakes matchup.

Betting Odds and Expert Picks Favor Mariners in Deciding Contest

According to consensus odds from SportsLine, the Mariners are favored with a money line of -125, indicating bettors must wager $125 to win $100, while the Mets are underdogs at +105. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, with the Under priced at -106 and Over at -115, suggesting a close battle with moderate scoring expected. Angelo Magliocca, known as Amags, a respected MLB handicapper and contributor to CBS Sports HQ and The Early Edge, has crafted a same-game parlay for this game on DraftKings Sportsbook that involves Juan Soto, the Mets’ star outfielder.

Key Components of Expert Same-Game Parlay From Angelo Magliocca

• Mariners to win the game
• George Kirby to record 5 or more strikeouts
• Juan Soto to achieve at least one hit

Amags currently holds a 123.5 unit profit over the past three MLB seasons, which underscores his credibility in handicapping. His selection reflects confidence in Seattle’s ability to take the series finale but also the expectation that Juan Soto will continue to contribute offensively, despite facing strong pitching from Kirby.

Williamsport’s Venue and Game Conditions Favor Pitching

The Little League Classic in Williamsport represents a distinctive environment in MLB’s schedule, similar to special events like the Speedway Classic or the Field of Dreams game. However, this venue has hosted seven MLB games since 2017, giving it a more established history. Data reveals that the combined runs scored have exceeded the current total of 8.5 just twice and not since 2018, prompting a cautious lean toward the Under in scoring forecasts. The field’s dimensions, elevation, and weather conditions typically do not favor heavy hitting, suggesting pitching performances will be pivotal for both teams.

George Kirby’s Strong Form Boosts Mariners’ Chances

Kirby’s recent form has been outstanding, boasting a 2.32 ERA across his last nine starts with seven quality outings. Seattle’s pitching depth is further bolstered by having its main high-leverage relievers ready, contrasting with New York’s likely absence of closer Edwin Diaz, who has pitched in two of the past three days and threw over 30 pitches in his last appearance. Meanwhile, Mariners’ hitters face Clay Holmes, a pitcher with a history of relieving whose transition to starter has shown some vulnerability. Holmes has failed to reliably record 17 outs over his last 11 starts and has particularly struggled against right-handed batters, allowing a .452 weighted on-base average (wOBA) in the past month.

Kirby’s Improved Arsenal Poses Challenge for Mets’ Lineup

One of Kirby’s most notable improvements is his increased effectiveness against left-handed bats, raising his swinging strike rate to above 15% and striking out more than 30% of these hitters recently. This season, he has shifted away from relying on his splitter, instead favoring sliders and curveballs, which have strong whiff rates. Kirby is expected to face six left-handed batters during the game, giving him a good opportunity to surpass five strikeouts if he completes six innings. With three tough left-handed batters topping the Mets’ lineup showing increased strikeout tendencies, Kirby could well exceed expectations in this key metric.

Juan Soto Poised to Build on Recent Hitting Streak

Juan Soto has been a major offensive contributor for the Mets, securing hits in 13 of 14 games during August while batting .283 and hitting five home runs over this span. He has also demonstrated success against Kirby, going 3-for-3 in his limited at-bats against the Seattle starter. Soto’s skill in making contact on pitches within the strike zone, combined with Kirby’s tendency not to issue many walks, suggests Soto’s chances of recording at least one hit in this matchup are strong. This potential contributes to the attractive +300 odds on the parlay bet, offering an appealing opportunity for bettors.

Implications of Sunday’s Game and What to Watch

The Little League Classic’s finale carries more than just a win; it’s an event that ties MLB’s highest level with youth baseball, drawing attention to the sport’s growth and community connection. Sunday’s pitching duel between Kirby and Holmes, along with offensive showdowns involving Soto, will be critical in deciding the series winner. Mariners‘ strength in pitching and bullpen depth alongside the Mets’ pursuit of a series victory set the stage for a competitive and entertaining night. Fans and bettors alike will be watching closely to see if Kirby maintains his dominance and if Soto continues to shine on this unique national stage.