Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. enters Sunday’s game against the Kansas City Royals with a rare +450 odds to steal a base, despite a recent eight-game stretch without an attempt. While Robert’s offensive production has lagged behind early expectations this season, his success on the basepaths remains a bright spot, with a career-high 31 stolen bases thus far. This intriguing Luis Robert Jr. stolen base prop stands out among the top <a href="https://www.buzzineintl.com/category/baseball/mlb/”>MLB player prop picks for August 17, amid a busy 15-game Sunday schedule.
The SportsLine Projection Model fuels these recommendations, running 10,000 simulations per game and arriving at picks with a 31-23 record on money-line bets so far this season. Particularly proficient in identifying home run props, the model has accrued over 56 units of profit this year. These data-driven insights support some compelling player prop options this Sunday, aiming to capitalize on favorable pricing before markets adjust.
Attractive MLB Player Prop Bets for Sunday, August 17
Among the standouts for Sunday’s player props are White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. to record over 0.5 stolen bases at +450 odds, Cincinnati Reds pitcher Andrew Abbott to exceed 4.5 total strikeouts at +126, and Oakland Athletics’ slugger Nick Kurtz to hit over 0.5 home runs also at +450. These selections combine potential undervaluation with statistical support to offer bettors worthwhile opportunities.
Current Sportsbook Offers Enhance MLB Prop Betting
Sunday’s MLB player prop markets come with appealing sportsbook promotions designed to boost wagering value. FanDuel features a welcome offer providing new users with $300 in bonus bets if their initial $5 wager wins. Meanwhile, bet365 delivers $150 in bonus bets for first-time bettors staking at least $5. DraftKings combines an instant $200 in bonus bets with an additional $200 discount on <a href="https://www.buzzineintl.com/category/football/nfl/”>NFL Sunday Ticket for newcomers, enhancing overall betting value.
Other notable promotions include BetMGM, which covers first bets up to $1,500 in bonus bets, contingent on wagering that full amount. Fanatics Sportsbook offers up to $1,000 in FanCash, distributed over ten days with daily wagering requirements. Caesars Sportsbook deviates from traditional bonus bets by providing ten 100% profit boosts for users who wager at least $1 per bet, increasing potential returns on winning wagers.
Examining Luis Robert Jr.’s Stolen Base Opportunity This Sunday
Luis Robert Jr.’s stalled streak of stolen bases ties closely to his recent offensive struggles, during which he managed only four hits and two walks over eight games. Prior to this lull, Robert was thriving on the basepaths, stealing five bases during a nine-game hitting streak. Despite Royals catcher Salvador Perez’s reputation—he has thrown out 12 of 25 runners attempting to steal this year—the model highlights Perez’s declining effectiveness compared to previous seasons, when opponents had more success running on him.
From 2023 to 2024 combined, Perez caught only 20 of 91 attempted steals, signaling potential vulnerabilities Robert could exploit. The SportsLine Model sets Robert’s stolen base line at +238, indicating substantial value compared to DraftKings’ current +450 odds. With DraftKings also offering an enticing $200 in bonus bets and a $200 discount on NFL Sunday Ticket for new users, the risk-reward profile on Robert’s stolen base bet this Sunday looks compelling.
Andrew Abbott Expected to Deliver High Strikeout Totals
Reds left-hander Andrew Abbott has displayed strong strikeout capability throughout the season, carrying a 2.41 ERA with 105 strikeouts over 123 innings pitched. In his last outing against the Philadelphia Phillies, Abbott struck out six, and he has recorded at least five strikeouts in 13 of his 21 starts this year. Bettors can find 4.5 strikeouts priced at +126 on FanDuel, which also offers new users $300 in bonus bets if their first $5 wager wins.
Some sportsbooks provide a lower strikeout line of 3.5, but the model’s projection suggests Abbott averaging nearly five strikeouts per start, reinforcing the value in wagering on the higher line. Abbott’s consistency over the season and history of quality starts make this a strong prop for Sunday’s contest.
Nick Kurtz Set to Target Home Run Success Against Angels Pitching
Athletics power hitter Nick Kurtz has rapidly established himself as one of baseball’s rising sluggers since his call-up in late April. His impressive .306/.387/.628 slash line includes 24 home runs and 65 RBIs over 83 games. Facing Los Angeles right-hander Jose Soriano for the third time, Kurtz has modest success in previous matchups, going 1-for-6 but with notable exit velocities exceeding 105 mph on two batted balls off Soriano.
The SportsLine Model projects a home run probability for Kurtz at +251, while sportsbooks like BetMGM offer +450 for over 0.5 home runs with enticing first bet bonuses up to $1,500 for new accounts. Kurtz’s raw power and consistent production underpin this optimistic home run prop for Sunday.
Utilizing the MLB Home Run, Stolen Base, and Strikeout Projections
The SportsLine Model, developed by the Inside the Lines team, supports bettors through daily projections covering home runs, stolen bases, and strikeouts, highlighting lines with the best expected value. Comparing bookmaker odds against the model’s projections allows bettors to identify favorable discrepancies and make well-informed wagers.
For example, Andrew Abbott’s strikeout projection aligns with an 8-4 record on over 4.5 strikeouts at home, reinforcing reliability. His tendency to pitch deep into games, with five quality starts in his last six outings, enhances confidence in his strikeout totals. Sportsbooks such as BetRivers offer competitive lines like 3.5 strikeouts at -165, but bettors may prefer higher lines like 4.5 when the odds provide greater profit potential combined with Abbott’s track record.
Expanding Your MLB Prop Betting Options for Sunday
Alongside these highlighted player props, comprehensive MLB projections covering every player prop are available on SportsLine, offering detailed insights for bettors looking to diversify or find additional edges. Leveraging these data-driven picks can contribute to a more disciplined and potentially profitable betting approach as the season progresses.