A trusted Fantasy football prediction model accurately foresaw Raheem Mostert’s disappointing 2024 season and now highlights potential busts for the 2025 season. The model’s insight aims to guide managers as they prepare for upcoming drafts, helping them avoid costly mistakes in their Fantasy football lineups.
Raheem Mostert’s 2024 Fantasy Struggles Foreseen by the Model
Last year, Raheem Mostert came off a remarkable 1,000-yard rushing season with 21 total touchdowns despite sharing carries with De’Von Achane. However, the model forecasted a steep decline, correctly predicting that Mostert would underperform his average draft position (ADP) of RB23. Instead, he fell to RB60 in final rankings, finishing 2024 with only 439 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns as he lost favor in Miami’s offense. This accurate prediction underscores the model’s reliability in spotting emerging Fantasy pitfalls.
Evaluating 2025 Fantasy Football Bust Candidates
As the 2025 season approaches, the same model has identified several players likely to disappoint Fantasy owners. Among wide receivers, Jameson Williams of the Detroit Lions stands out as a notable bust candidate. Despite breaking out last season with 58 receptions, 1,001 yards, and seven touchdowns over 15 games, Williams faced challenges such as low average targets per game (6.1) and the loss of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. His production also benefited from quarterback Jared Goff’s unusually high touchdown rate of 6.9%. Given these circumstances, the model ranks Williams behind reliable receivers like Jaylen Waddle, Stefon Diggs, and Deebo Samuel, even though he is drafted before them. Beyond these studies, there are ten players drafted after Williams who the model favors, reinforcing concerns about his 2025 value.
On the running back front, Steelers’ Jaylen Warren is flagged as another likely bust. Warren has spent his early career as a backup to Najee Harris, averaging modest scrimmage yards and usage. His career yards per carry average stands at 4.8, but he has never exceeded 8.8 carries per game. With Harris now gone, Warren’s expected workload remains uncertain, especially after Pittsburgh selected Kaleb Johnson, who tallied over 1,500 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns in college last season. Warren’s current draft position before backs like Zach Charbonnet, Najee Harris (now on a new team), and Javonte Williams, who are all available later, makes him precarious for Fantasy owners.
Questioning Veteran Performance and Tight End Reliability
Veteran players also raise doubts heading into 2025. Kansas City Chiefs’ tight end Travis Kelce, at age 36, had his lowest output in several key receiving statistics last season, including yards, touchdowns, and yards per reception. His Fantasy points per game dropped to a decade-low, making him a risky choice for Fantasy managers. While Kelce led tight ends with 26 red zone targets, Kansas City’s crowded wide receiver corps and emerging talents like Brock Bowers and George Kittle provide owners alternative options, casting uncertainty over Kelce’s future impact in lineups.
Proven Accuracy of the Fantasy Football Prediction Model
The model underpinning these insights has a strong history of accurate forecasts. It previously identified sleepers such as A.J. Brown in 2020, anticipated Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season in 2021, and correctly predicted a regression for quarterback C.J. Stroud in 2024. It has also highlighted talents like Derrick Henry (2019), Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara (2018), and Davante Adams (2017), helping Fantasy managers exploit undervalued players or avoid pitfalls. This consistent performance lends credibility to its 2025 rankings and bust warnings.
Guidance on 2025 Fantasy Football Draft Strategies
As draft season nears, this model offers essential cheat sheets and comprehensive Fantasy football rankings built on 10,000 simulated NFL seasons. These resources reveal sleepers, breakout candidates, and busts, including surprising warnings about top first-round running backs who may not live up to their draft cost. The model even singles out a running back projected to fall out of the top 10 rankings despite being taken early in most drafts, signaling caution for managers opting for early picks.
Armed with these projections, Fantasy owners can better navigate the complexities of player value and team dynamics, helping them avoid costly missteps like those seen with Raheem Mostert in 2024.
Current Top 10 Running Backs by Average Draft Position for 2025
Here are the leading running backs according to PPR (point per reception) drafts, as reported via CBS:
1. Ja’Marr Chase (1.82)
2. Bijan Robinson (2.48)
3. Saquon Barkley (3.11)
4. Jahmyr Gibbs (4.21)
5. Justin Jefferson (7.22)
6. CeeDee Lamb (7.33)
7. Derrick Henry (9.35)
8. Christian McCaffrey (10.34)
9. De’Von Achane (10.38)
10. Ashton Jeanty (12.91)
These rankings reflect draft trends but don’t guarantee Fantasy success, especially given the potential bust alerts from the computer model.
With Fantasy football continually evolving, relying on data-driven projections like these equips owners to make wiser decisions and better manage risks in the high-stakes environment of 2025 drafts.