At the conclusion of May 2025, Aaron Judge appeared to be the runaway favorite for the American League MVP, leading Major League Baseball with remarkable statistics including a .398 batting average, .490 on-base percentage, and a staggering OPS of 1.268. The New York Yankees star held the top spot with a 233 weighted runs created plus (wRC+), and his 18 home runs ranked second across the league, underscoring his dominance early in the season. The Yankees maintained a stronghold atop the AL East, leading the division by seven games with a run differential well above +100.

However, the momentum shifted by the end of May as Judge and the Yankees saw their performances dip. Catcher Cal Raleigh emerged in MVP discussions by matching and eventually surpassing Judge’s power metrics, a feat that gained attention given Raleigh’s demanding defensive position. Meanwhile, the Yankees slid into a slump, posting a 31-35 record since early June and falling 5.5 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East standings by mid-August.

Toronto Blue Jays’ Rise and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Impact

Contrasting the Yankees’ decline, the Toronto Blue Jays have surged since May’s end, compiling a glowing 42-23 record and seizing the AL East lead during a direct matchup with the Yankees on July 3. Since mid-July, the Blue Jays’ lead has consistently remained at least three games, whether over the Yankees or the Boston Red Sox. A critical factor in Toronto’s ascent has been the consistent and impressive performance of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

While Guerrero’s power numbers have sometimes been questioned, he displays a hitting profile more aligned with Miguel Cabrera’s balanced approach rather than the high home run totals associated with players like Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder. This consistency and versatility underlie his growing reputation as a pivotal contributor for Toronto.

Analyzing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as a Potential MVP Contender

Guerrero’s power output may not sparkle with eye-catching totals annually, but his ability to reach the 25-30 home run range while hitting hard to all fields and maintaining low strikeout numbers makes him a formidable player. His 48-homer season in 2021 appears to be an exceptional peak, rather than a regular expectation.

His performance significantly improved beginning in June 2025, posting a slash line of .314/.406/.551 with a .957 OPS. Over 54 games during this period, he launched 12 home runs, drove in 41 runs, and kept strikeouts (35) nearly equal to walks (34), showcasing both power and plate discipline. In contrast, Judge during the same stretch hit .259/.398/.591 with a .988 OPS and 18 home runs but saw time on the 10-day injured list beginning late July.

Comparing Judge and Guerrero Throughout the Season

Aaron Judge still holds superior overall statistics for the season, leading the league with a 6.5 bWAR and dominating multiple key categories including walks (83), runs scored (95), batting average (.333), on-base percentage (.445), slugging percentage (.689), OPS (1.135), OPS+ (210), total bases (282), and intentional walks (28). These figures reinforce Judge’s case as the leading candidate for MVP under traditional metrics.

Nonetheless, as the Yankees falter in the second half and the Blue Jays continue their climb, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s contributions have become increasingly hard to overlook. His consistent offensive production and steady presence in the lineup have been fundamental to Toronto’s success this season.

Potential MVP Vote Shifts and the Team Rivalry Intensifies

Though Judge still appears the expected recipient of MVP honors on paper, the growing narrative surrounding Guerrero as a plausible alternative candidate gains traction as the season progresses. If Guerrero manages to peel off some MVP votes from Judge, this development could amplify the existing rivalry between the Blue Jays and the Yankees, who are already enmeshed in a fierce divisional battle.

Ultimately, while the statistical edge currently remains with Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s consistent performance and the Blue Jays’ sustained success make him a genuine dark horse candidate for the 2025 American League MVP award, capable of disrupting preconceptions and reshaping the MVP conversation as the season advances.