Alex Bowman heads into this Saturday’s regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway under significant pressure after falling short against Austin Dillon in the closing laps at Richmond Raceway last weekend. Despite sitting ninth in the points standings with 14 top-10 finishes—the second most among Cup drivers—Bowman has yet to register a victory this season, placing him precariously on the brink of losing his playoff position.
Kevin Harvick, analyzing the situation on his Happy Hour podcast, expressed doubts about Bowman’s chances of maintaining his postseason spot without a win at Daytona. With Austin Dillon’s recent Richmond win intensifying competition, Harvick foresees the playoff landscape shifting dramatically following the upcoming superspeedway race.
Harvick’s Perspective on Bowman’s Playoff Challenges
Kevin Harvick commented,
“I felt like the 48 had a shot. And I feel like they’re in a bad spot now,”
assessing Bowman’s predicament. Addressing Austin Dillon’s Richmond victory and Bowman’s current points margin, Harvick added,
“With Austin Dillon winning this race — I look at Alex Bowman +60 — I just don’t think that spot’s gonna be there after this weekend. I think there’s a good possibility that we see somebody else outside of those 14 guys that’s locked in win at Daytona.”
He further noted the competitive atmosphere boiling down to a select group of winners, saying,
“We’ve been talking about this for months, and I think a lot of those guys that have been counting points and not won a race — you just had the feeling it was coming down to this 14, 15 winners.”
The Playoff Picture Hinges on New Winners at Daytona
This NASCAR season has seen 14 different race winners. Tyler Reddick currently holds the 15th playoff position, sitting 89 points above the cutline and 29 points ahead of Bowman. If a new winner emerges at Daytona, one of Bowman or Reddick will lose their playoff spot due to the limited number of postseason entries. However, if no fresh winner arises, both remain safely in the playoffs. This dynamic creates a high-stakes environment for Bowman heading into the season finale.
Experienced Superspeedway Drivers Pose a Threat
Harvick underscored the presence of seasoned veterans skilled at winning on superspeedways, suggesting that Bowman faces stiff competition from multiple contenders. He explained,
“I think going into Daytona that being brave and taking chances and putting yourself in a position to win is something that Ricky Stenhouse Jr. can do, Brad Keselowski can do, Kyle Busch can do, Chris Buescher can do. … Those guys have already done it on a superspeedway, and they’ve done it multiple times on a superspeedway,”
emphasizing the advantage of these drivers who have mastered high-pressure, high-speed racing conditions.
Harvick also highlighted Richard Childress Racing’s (RCR) focus, stating,
“I think the Fords are gonna be fast. And I think with Austin Dillon winning and RCR being able to focus just on that 8 car for Daytona, I know personally how good RCR cars have been on superspeedways.”
This adds another layer of challenge for Bowman, as RCR’s strength at Daytona could influence the outcome significantly.
Potential Upset Could Jeopardize Bowman’s Playoff Spot
Looking ahead, Harvick expressed concern that the race might produce an unexpected winner outside of the current playoff contenders, which would complicate Bowman’s path forward. He warned,
“I don’t know, it just has that feeling that there’s a high possibility of someone outside the top 14 winning. And I think that puts Bowman in a bad spot. Having to try figure out how to gain those points on Tyler Reddick is going to be a tall task.”
This underscores the urgency for Bowman to secure a victory at Daytona to secure his place in the postseason without depending on others’ misfortune.
Significance of the Final Regular Season Race at Daytona
The upcoming race at Daytona International Speedway holds extreme importance for drivers like Bowman who lack a season win but are still fighting for playoff survival. The superspeedway’s unpredictable nature often allows for surprise winners, as seen last year when Harrison Burton, ranked 34th in points, clinched a playoff berth through a winning performance. This unpredictability adds pressure on consistent performers who have yet to reach Victory Lane, including Bowman.
With several veteran drivers adept at superspeedway racing and capable of seizing critical victories, the competition will be intense. As Kevin Harvick pointed out, the combination of strong teams like RCR focusing resources and experienced racers willing to take risks could reshape the playoff field. Bowman’s must-win scenario at Daytona emphasizes the razor-thin margins controlling access to NASCAR’s postseason and the fierce battles drivers face in the season’s final moments.