Brock Bowers, widely regarded as a top-tier tight end, is seeing a surprising decline in his fantasy football rankings going into the 2025 season, despite his impressive talent and production. This change comes after detailed analysis of his playing time patterns during the preseason and broader offseason developments affecting his role with the Las Vegas Raiders.
Insights into Brock Bowers fantasy football rankings indicate that concerns around his snap count rotation, competition within the Raiders’ tight end group, and shifts in offensive strategy are driving fantasy managers to reconsider his draft value.
Preseason Playing Time Raises Red Flags for Bowers
Before the 2024 NFL season, doubts about Bowers’ workload started emerging due to his size and the Raiders’ evolving personnel. Bowers weighs 235 pounds, lighter than most power tight ends who log high snap counts. Comparable players with similar weights, such as Taysom Hill at 221 pounds or Juwan Johnson at 231 pounds, tend to play more specialized or limited roles. Even other tight ends with slightly greater mass, like Chig Okonkwo, Evan Engram, and Dalton Kincaid, generally have restricted snap usage.
Historically, top fantasy tight ends maintain snap rates above 75%, often averaging around 85%. In 2023, Bowers logged an 85% snap rate, parallel to elite players like Trey McBride and George Kittle. Yet Bowers faces stiffer competition than usual. The Raiders drafted Michael Mayer 35th overall in 2023, an accomplished blocker from the same tight end class, anticipated to carve out meaningful playing time especially on early downs.
Mayer’s role as a reliable inline blocker led the Raiders to frequently deploy two-tight end sets. Though Bowers excelled as a receiving specialist, Mayer’s presence was expected to trim Bowers’ snaps in certain situations, specifically early downs.
Early Season Snap Distribution Echoes Preseason Concerns
During the first three games of the 2024 season, Bowers’ playing time fluctuated between 65% and 69% of offensive snaps, in line with NFL tight ends of his size. Notably, Bowers and Mayer often shared the field in 12 personnel formations. While Bowers dominated 11 personnel snaps (82) compared to Mayer (58), the split on early downs was virtually equal, with Mayer at 51 snaps and Bowers at 50. Bowers had a substantial advantage on third downs with 27 snaps to Mayer’s 6.
Despite limited snaps, Bowers’ fantasy impact remained strong, averaging 12.6 PPR points per game. This level of production typically translates to a top-5 to top-7 finish among tight ends in full seasons.
Bowers’ Performance Surges in Michael Mayer’s Absence
Midseason, Mayer took a two-month leave for personal reasons, which significantly shifted the dynamic. During Mayer’s hiatus, Bowers’ playing time and fantasy output increased markedly, posting 16.1 PPR points per game. He ended the 2024 season as the leading tight end in fantasy scoring and ranked third in points per game with 15.5, trailing only George Kittle’s 15.8 and Trey McBride’s 15.6.
Bowers set a league-leading mark with 592 routes run and earned a high receiving grade of 88.4, ranking third among tight ends. His efficiency, measured by fantasy points per route (0.44), was sixth-best, behind elite peers like Kittle, Mark Andrews, Jonnu Smith, Dallas Goedert, and McBride. A notable challenge was that only 81.1% of Bowers’ targets were catchable, lower than others at the position. Interestingly, tight ends such as Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta had even lower catchable target rates, despite benefiting from more accurate quarterback play.
Significant Shifts in Raiders’ Offense Ahead of 2025
The Raiders have undergone a broad offseason overhaul, introducing Pete Carroll as head coach and Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator, while also acquiring QB Geno Smith, running back Ashton Jeanty, and two wide receivers to strengthen their skill positions. These changes carry mixed implications for Bowers’ fantasy outlook.
On the positive side, Geno Smith’s improved accuracy (64.8% completion rate ranked 11th among quarterbacks with 200+ dropbacks) contrasts sharply with past Raiders’ quarterbacks who collectively completed just 57.9% of passes. This should enhance Bowers’ efficiency and fantasy points per target. Moreover, at 22 years old, Bowers is entering a phase of expected growth.
Conversely, Jeanty’s arrival threatens the offense’s pass distribution. The Raiders ranked near the bottom in run attempts (33% of plays, third-lowest league-wide) last season but intend to ramp up rushing volume. Jeanty will compete for target share, and likely reduce Bowers’ routes and opportunities. Collectively, these factors temper projections for Bowers’ fantasy production despite his elite skill set.
While consensus still favors Bowers as the top fantasy tight end, the balance between improved passing efficiency and increased rushing workload makes the precise impact uncertain.
Comparing Stability in McBride’s and Kittle’s Roles
Contrasting Bowers’ shifting environment, Trey McBride presents as a remarkably steady fantasy option. His coaching staff, quarterback, running backs, receivers, and backup tight ends remain intact, fostering consistency. McBride’s gameplay features a low average depth of target and a high volume of catchable passes, suggesting similar or improved production in 2025.
George Kittle’s situation is similarly stable with the San Francisco 49ers. While his team promoted Klay Kubiak to offensive coordinator, the head coach and quarterback remain unchanged. The running back corps includes a healthy Christian McCaffrey, offsetting the loss of Deebo Samuel from the receiving corps. Despite injury concerns and Kittle’s advancing age (31), his ability to generate big plays on fewer targets maintains his value.
Both McBride and Kittle join Bowers as the elite trio of tight ends expected to be drafted multiple rounds ahead of other players. Although the article highlights concerns over Bowers’ workload, McBride and Kittle remain solid benchmarks for where top-tier tight ends are valued.
Growing Unease Over Michael Mayer’s Role Before Preseason Began
In the months preceding the preseason, detailed player profiles expressed apprehension about Bowers’ playing time due to offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s tendencies. Kelly’s NFL coaching tenure has featured committees at tight end, seldom granting one player dominant snaps. Examples include Zach Ertz and Brent Celek in Philadelphia, and Garrett Celek and Vance McDonald in San Francisco, where snap leaders and receiving leaders were often different players.
If there is one concern for Bowers, it’s Kelly’s experience with tight ends in the NFL. He had a two-man committee at tight end in his four seasons as an NFL head coach. With Philadelphia, Zach Ertz was the receiving tight end while Brent Celek was an every-down tight end. In San Francisco, Brent’s brother, Garrett Celek, was the every-down tight end, while Vance McDonald was the receiving tight end. In three of those four years, the tight end who led the team in snaps was different than the tight end who led the team in receiving yards. The Raiders have the duo to make this work, as Mayer plays more snaps and Bowers plays in pass situations. Luckily, Kelly had one primary tight end throughout his recent time as a college coach and coordinator.
—Analysis from earlier scouting report
Erz’s snap rate under Kelly typically hovered around 72%, rising to 85% after Kelly’s departure, accompanied by top fantasy seasons. Kelly’s offenses lean heavily on 12 personnel formations—the Raiders led the league in this usage in 2023—implying both Bowers and Mayer would receive ample opportunities as a receiving and blocking tandem.
The addition of Jeanty intensified concerns that the Raiders might favor increased blocking snaps, potentially decreasing Bowers’ receiving targets. However, there was an assumption that Bowers’ unique skill set would guarantee ample playing time despite Mayer’s presence.
Meanwhile, positive reports surrounded Mayer throughout offseason training. Head coach Pete Carroll praised Mayer at mandatory minicamp, highlighting his work ethic and competitive drive.
I thought Mike [Michael Mayer] had a great off-season with us. We started out going heart to heart, and he understood what we’re all about, and he embraced it and took it as well as anybody could take the challenge of bringing it day in and day out. He had a great camp, and he was doing well before Brock [Bowers] got here, and the two of them just went head-to-head just trying to make a play here and there and going back and forth. And they were just great contributors. It’s a terrific position group for us. Ian Thomas is coming in really, really liven it up as well. So, we have a very good position group right there and excited about what they’re going to do, but I thought Michael had a great camp.
—Pete Carroll, Head Coach, Las Vegas Raiders
Media coverage amplified Mayer’s potential expanded role with headlines like
“Raiders TE Michael Mayer expects to have a big role in Chip Kelly’s offense”
and
“Don’t write off Raiders TE Michael Mayer yet.”
Mayer’s improved conditioning and emerging role suggested a dual-tight end system was imminent.
The Raiders‘ historic use of 12 personnel, highest in the league at 37.8% in 2023, sets a ceiling near 40%, a rare but possible threshold. If Mayer’s snap count grows, much of that increase will come at Bowers’ expense during 11 personnel formations.
Preseason Usage Signals a Clear Tight End Rotation for Raiders
In their first preseason game, the Raiders ran a single four–play drive with starters, during which Bowers played only one snap. Star players commonly receive limited snaps early in preseasons, but Bowers’ involvement on the second snap, rather than the first, raised subtle suspicions, despite insufficient evidence for firm conclusions.
The second preseason game featured two drives with starters, employing 11 personnel on each of the first 13 snaps. Mayer played eight vs. Bowers’ five snaps. Mayer dominated early downs (8 to 2) while Bowers played all three third downs. Goal-line snaps included both Bowers, Mayer, and Ian Thomas together. This frequent rotation—alternating plays between Bowers and Mayer—occurred throughout, clearly indicating a planned dual-tight end rotation.
Preseason behavior like this aligns with league trends where lead receiving tight ends often have limited preseason exposure; David Njoku and Mark Andrews played sparingly, while Travis Kelce and Trey McBride also had controlled usage with starters. Rotations help teams prepare tight ends in their specific roles, especially rookies, without risking injury or overexertion.
Several NFL teams use multiple tight ends in 11 personnel regularly, such as the Bears and Jets, thanks to rookie competitions, while others pair a run-blocking tight end with a receiving tight end (Broncos, Bengals, Chargers, Seahawks). Similarly, the Raiders appear to be embracing a rotation system for Bowers and Mayer.
Projected Playing Time and Fantasy Impact for the Upcoming Season
Chip Kelly’s historical preference for rotating tight ends—and the Raiders’ preseason deployment—raises critical questions about the scale of change in Bowers’ role. While preseason with starters showed under 50% snaps for Bowers, the regular season should see increased usage, especially in 12 personnel sets where the Raiders are expected to be among the league leaders.
Bowers also continues to have the advantage in 11 personnel formations, but early downs are more competitive. Last season, his snap rate was 49% early on, increasing to 72% without Mayer, and rising to 79% once Mayer returned late in the season. Preseason snaps fell to only 27% over three drives. Comparing this to Ertz’s range under Kelly, who played between 23% and 61%, any snap rate from these extremes is plausible.
Earlier estimates predicted Bowers near a 70% snap rate, factoring in slight reductions due to Mayer’s presence and Kelly’s tendencies. Now, preseason developments suggest about 60% is more realistic, a middle ground between the start and end of last season and Ertz’s peak under Kelly. However, this could shift during the season if circumstances change, dropping as low as the 23% preseason rate or remaining high above 80%.
Assuming a 60% snap rate, Bowers might run roughly 19 fewer routes than last season, translating to a loss of about 0.49 fantasy points per game using his 0.44 points per route rate. For context, 0.3 points per game separated third from first-ranked tight ends last year, so this decline is meaningful enough to reposition Bowers below Trey McBride and George Kittle in fantasy rankings, though he remains well ahead of the rest.
Rankings are also influenced by draft timing and value. Bowers’ drop reflects a belief he should not be targeted in the second round, where McBride or Kittle become preferable third-round choices to secure a top tight end. Overall, this is a modest shift in projected performance but significantly affects rankings due to close margins between leading players.