Last season, Cole Caufield reached a personal best by scoring 37 goals and totaling 70 points in 82 games. At only 24 years old, the Canadiens forward is entering a pivotal phase in his career, signaling that his offensive production is likely to increase. Caufield’s next major goal is to break the 40-goal mark in a single season, a feat within his reach given his progress so far.

Clarifying Caufield’s Role Amid Team Changes

Some have suggested that Patrik Laine’s return to full health might limit Caufield’s scoring opportunities. However, Caufield primarily excels as an even-strength scorer, meaning his production is less dependent on power-play or shared ice time with Laine. Of Caufield’s 37 goals last year, 27 occurred during even-strength play, underscoring his ability to contribute consistently when the game is at its most competitive level.

Shot Skill and Efficiency Underpin Caufield’s Scoring

Caufield is known for his proficient one-timer, but his shot becomes especially dangerous when he is moving, making him a significant threat during rush plays. Despite a career shooting percentage of 12.7%, his efficiency improves notably when excluding the 2023-24 season — a campaign hampered by recovery from shoulder surgery. Without that season, his shooting percentage rises to an impressive 14.6% across three full NHL seasons.

Potential for Increased Shot Volume and Goal Totals

Interestingly, Caufield took fewer shots per game last season compared to the previous year—2.93 versus 3.83 shots per game. If he increases his shot attempts by approximately 50 for the upcoming season while maintaining his healthier shooting percentage around 14.6%, Caufield could realistically score around 42 goals in a full 82-game schedule. This projection highlights the potential for his scoring to jump with a slight boost in shooting frequency and the return to full health.

Growth as a Versatile Player and Team Offensive Synergy

While Caufield is taking fewer shots than earlier in his career, this shift reflects his development into a more well-rounded player and an effective playmaker. Additionally, if the Canadiens improve puck possession collectively, Caufield’s opportunities to shoot should rise naturally. His linemate Juraj Slafkovsky, known for his playmaking and power forward capabilities, is also expected to make significant strides, which will benefit Caufield and Nick Suzuki. This trio’s chemistry has been evident, functioning like a finely tuned unit that lifts each player’s performance. Should they remain healthy throughout the season, the line could collectively score between 90-100 goals with Caufield likely leading as the primary finisher.

Enhanced Shot Selection Bolsters Scoring Outlook

Another factor in Caufield’s expected breakthrough is his increasing smartness in shot selection. He is learning to position himself better to maximize the effectiveness of his accurate wrister, making the most of his scoring chances. This tactical improvement is critical for reaching the next level in his goal production.

Power-Play Role and Internal Competition Drive Improvement

Even if Caufield loses the top sniper spot on the Canadiens’ first power-play unit to Patrik Laine at times, he will still have ample power-play opportunities, contributing at least 6-7 goals to his season total. The team is likely to rotate Caufield and Laine based on which player is producing more goals, fostering a competitive atmosphere that could positively push both players to excel. This friendly rivalry might also inspire Caufield to increase his shooting efforts to secure more power-play time.

Outlook for Cole Caufield’s Upcoming Season

Whether Caufield reaches the 40-goal milestone or not, the forward is positioned for a significant season. His skill development, health, and the Canadiens‘ evolving offensive system all suggest that his scoring impact will continue to grow. Watching how this young player performs alongside teammates like Slafkovsky and Suzuki will be crucial in determining the overall offensive output for Montreal in the coming months.

“This should add another 6-7 goals to his total at the very least.” —Unnamed Analyst
“The three players seem to complement each other so well, and when one of them improves, it seems like they all improve like a well-oiled machine.” —Unnamed Analyst