As the Chicago Blackhawks prepare for the 2025-26 NHL season, their young star Connor Bedard aims to elevate his performance and help lift the team from the league’s lower ranks. Entering his third NHL season, the focus turns to whether Bedard can surpass the 80-point milestone and solidify his standing as one of hockey’s elite.
In his initial two seasons, Bedard—selected first overall in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft—has amassed 45 goals and 83 assists for 128 points over 150 games. This scoring pace approximates to about 70 points per full season, a notable achievement but perhaps below the lofty expectations tied to a franchise phenom. To better understand Bedard’s trajectory, this article compares his progress to other recent number-one picks who carried similar hype entering their third NHL campaigns.
Jack Hughes’ Early Career Growth with the New Jersey Devils
Jack Hughes, chosen first overall in 2019, entered the NHL with impressive junior credentials, setting the U.S. National Development Program’s all-time points record with 228 points in 110 games. However, his early NHL seasons were disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, limiting his production to 18 goals and 34 assists through 117 games.
Hughes’s third season marked a turning point despite a shoulder dislocation early on. Playing only 49 games, he tied for the Devils’ lead in goals with 26 and finished third in points with 56. Since then, Hughes has become one of the league’s top centers, maintaining over a point per game across four seasons and achieving a 99-point campaign in 2022-23.
Auston Matthews’ Rapid Rise as a Prolific Goal Scorer
Auston Matthews, drafted first overall in 2016 by the Toronto Maple Leafs, has emerged as one of the greatest goal scorers in NHL history. Despite recent milestones achieved by Alex Ovechkin, Matthews scored his 400th career goal in just 628 games—faster than Ovechkin by six games.
Matthews demonstrated elite scoring ability from the start, netting 40 goals in his rookie season and 34 in his second. His third season, though limited by injuries to 68 games, still produced 73 points with 37 goals and 36 assists. He has since captured the Maurice Rocket Richard Trophy three times, achieved two 60-goal seasons—including a remarkable 69 goals in 2023-24—matching a record not seen since Mario Lemieux’s 1995-96 season. Currently, Matthews leads active players with a 0.64 goals-per-game average and ranks third among expansion-era stars behind Mike Bossy and Lemieux.
Connor McDavid’s Dominance from the Start
Widely regarded as the best player in the world, Connor McDavid joined the NHL in 2015-16 and made an immediate impact despite missing part of his rookie season to injury. He scored 48 points in 45 games and exploded the following year with 100 points, capturing the Art Ross, Ted Lindsay, and Hart trophies at just 20 years old.
By his third season, McDavid increased his output to 108 points, including 41 goals, again winning the Art Ross and Ted Lindsay awards. Over his 11 seasons, McDavid has won the Art Ross Trophy five times, the Hart Trophy three times, and captured the Maurice Rocket Richard Trophy in 2022-23. He also led the Edmonton Oilers to consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances in 2024 and 2025.
Nathan MacKinnon’s Uneven Start Before Reaching Elite Status
Nathan MacKinnon, the 2013 first-overall pick, faced skepticism after a rookie campaign that impressed with 63 points and a Calder Trophy win was tempered by a sophomore slump, scoring just 38 points. His third season saw him record 21 goals on a struggling Colorado Avalanche team that missed the playoffs, which continued into his fourth season with 53 points over 82 games.
Despite early inconsistencies, MacKinnon’s career surged with three consecutive 90-point seasons between 2017-18 and 2019-20. He played a pivotal role in Colorado’s Stanley Cup victory in 2022 and secured the Hart Trophy in 2024, cementing his place among the game’s elite.
John Tavares’ Gradual Development to Consistent Scoring
John Tavares, selected first overall in 2009, entered the NHL with significant junior success, posting 72 goals and 134 points with the Oshawa Generals at age 16. His rookie season with the New York Islanders yielded 24 goals and 54 points, followed by a 67-point sophomore year despite not fully meeting his considerable expectations.
In Tavares’ third NHL season, he recorded 81 points, placing second in league scoring during a slower scoring era and ranking fourth in goals with 38. This marked his first of five 80-point campaigns. Though the following lockout-shortened season saw a drop to 47 points, Tavares remained a top contributor and eventual Hart Trophy finalist. In the 2024-25 season, now at 34 years old and in his 16th NHL year, Tavares tallied 38 goals and 74 points, nearing his career averages.
Examining How Bedard Stacks Up Against These Elite Peers
Connor Bedard’s production so far is noteworthy when compared to other high-profile first overall picks. He has a superior points-per-game ratio than Hughes, MacKinnon, and Tavares through their first two NHL seasons. His 82-game scoring average is also comparable to Matthews, suggesting room for significant growth.
However, all but MacKinnon made substantial strides in their third seasons, becoming some of the league’s top scorers and launching their prime years. Whether aided by skilled linemates or relying on individual talent, these players found ways to fulfill the promise they showed in junior hockey.
Though the Blackhawks are unlikely to contend for a playoff spot in 2025-26, most experts anticipate Bedard will elevate his game considerably. Given his trajectory and past comparisons, breaking the 80-point barrier is a realistic expectation for the 20-year-old phenom in his third NHL season.
“If not McDavid, who’s the best?”
—Anonymous Source