The San Diego Padres currently hold the fifth seed in the National League, positioned 3.5 games ahead of the Cincinnati Reds for a playoff berth. While featuring players like Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego’s offense has not been the driving force behind their postseason push. Instead, the team‘s strong pitching staff, especially their bullpen, has played a crucial role in maintaining their playoff hopes.
Offense Lags as Power Numbers Fall Short
The Padres’ offense has been underwhelming this season, producing only 2.8 runs above average, which translates to 14.4 wins above replacement from their position players. In contrast, their pitching has delivered more value, ranking fourth in the league with 15 WAR. The team’s lack of power hitting is particularly surprising given their roster’s potential.
San Diego has managed just 106 home runs so far, placing them 29th out of 30 MLB teams, above only the Pittsburgh Pirates. By comparison, the New York Yankees have belted 204 home runs, putting the Padres nearly 100 long balls behind the league’s top power team. Even the Dodgers, who lead the NL West division, have hit 81 more homers than San Diego.
Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Fade in Power Limits Padres’ Offensive Threat
A significant factor in the Padres’ power shortage is the sharp decline in Fernando Tatis Jr.’s home run production. Once one of baseball’s premier power hitters, Tatis has not homered in his last 83 at bats and has hit only one home run since the All-Star Break. The contrast with his previous form is stark—his slugging percentage in 2021 was an impressive .611, whereas this season it has dropped to a career-low .431.
The reasons behind Tatis’s diminished power remain unclear. After returning to the majors in 2023 following a suspension for testing positive for the banned substance Clostebol, his slugging metrics have consistently fallen short of earlier career highs. Some Padres coaches suggest his altered contact point at the plate might be contributing to the decline.
Remaining Value Despite Power Issues
Despite the drop in home runs, Tatis has maintained above-average overall hitting by improving his on-base percentage and reducing his strikeout rate. Additionally, his defensive performance has been strong, contributing to an estimated five wins above replacement this season. However, the Padres face pressing concerns. Teams with a lack of home run power often struggle in the postseason, making it critical for the organization to address this offensive shortfall.
Whether this current power drop is a temporary setback or a permanent shift in Tatis’s game remains uncertain, but the implications are significant as San Diego eyes a deep playoff run.