Major League Baseball faced a significant development last week when Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler underwent surgery to remove a blood clot from his shoulder, with no clear timeline for his return. This medical setback not only raises concerns about Wheeler’s health but also shakes up the playoff outlook, as the Phillies’ chances for a deep postseason run diminish without their ace, and it reshapes the competition for the Paul Skenes NL Cy Young race.
Wheeler’s Absence Creates Opportunity for Paul Skenes and Others
Throughout the season, Wheeler had been closely matched with Pittsburgh Pirates’ young standout Paul Skenes. Wheeler led the National League in strikeouts by a significant margin and ranked highly in WHIP, ERA, and WAR. Twice a runner-up in Cy Young voting, Wheeler was expected to maintain a strong presence down the stretch. However, his injury has caused his odds to plummet, leaving him off many expert top lists.
According to Fanduel’s latest projections, Paul Skenes leads the field at -360, followed by Cristopher Sánchez at +240. Other contenders include Matthew Boyd (+4500), Freddy Peralta (+6500), and Logan Webb (+8000). Despite Wheeler’s decline, the race remains competitive, particularly between Skenes and Sánchez, both representing Pennsylvania teams.
Head-to-Head Comparison: Paul Skenes Versus Cristopher Sánchez
Paul Skenes and Cristopher Sánchez have delivered similarly impressive seasons, creating a closely contested battle for the NL Cy Young title. Skenes’ 7-9 record comes with a 2.16 ERA, an outstanding 195 ERA+, a 0.96 WHIP, and 174 strikeouts against 37 walks over 154 innings. Conversely, Sánchez holds an 11-4 record with a 2.46 ERA, a 181 ERA+, a 1.10 WHIP, and 169 strikeouts against 38 walks in 157 innings.
When evaluating WAR (wins above replacement), Sánchez leads according to Baseball-Reference, while Skenes holds the advantage in FanGraphs, indicating how close their performances have been throughout the season. Though Skenes currently holds a slight edge due to name recognition and dominant pitching style, Sánchez remains a formidable contender.
Impact of Traditional Metrics and Other Contenders in the Race
Historically, a pitcher’s win-loss record heavily influenced Cy Young voting, which would likely have disadvantaged Skenes with his sub-.500 record despite his strong individual numbers. This outdated criteria would have put players like Peralta—a 15-5 pitcher with superior team support and solid stats—into better consideration. Peralta ranks as a legitimate candidate with top-10 marks in several pitching categories, including WAR, ERA, WHIP, and innings pitched.
Matthew Boyd has also emerged as a standout for the Chicago Cubs, posting a 12-6 record with a 2.61 ERA and ranking high in WHIP and innings pitched. Additionally, Logan Webb leads the league in innings pitched but has middling ERA stats, while Andrew Abbott of the Cincinnati Reds, with an 8-3 record and impressive rate statistics, remains a long-shot choice given his relatively low innings total.
The Final Verdict on the NL Cy Young Competition
With Wheeler sidelined and a clear focus on individual performance metrics rather than team success, Paul Skenes appears poised to claim the NL Cy Young Award. His skill set, consistency, and current lead in key pitching categories position him as the most likely winner. While Cristopher Sánchez represents the strongest threat remaining, other talented pitchers face significant challenges to surpass Skenes’ performance by season‘s end.
As the race narrows, the emphasis remains on pitcher excellence regardless of win-loss records or team standings, reflecting the true purpose of the award. It will be difficult to argue convincingly at the season’s conclusion that anyone besides Paul Skenes deserves the top honor in the National League.
“Wheeler leads the league in strikeouts (by 20) and WHIP. He’s fifth in ERA, fourth in ERA+ and fourth among pitchers in WAR.”
—Anonymous Analyst
“Sánchez has the lead in baseball-reference’s version of WAR, while Skenes leads in Fangraphs and both are close enough to be within the margin of error.”
—Anonymous Analyst
“The Cy Young is for the best pitcher in the league. You’d be hard pressed right now to tell me that, come the end of the season, it’ll be anyone on the NL side other than Paul Skenes.”
—Anonymous Analyst