In preparing for the 2025 fantasy football season, identifying a reliable A.J. Brown fantasy floor pick is crucial for managers seeking a balance of safety and upside. Brown’s consistency with the Philadelphia Eagles makes him stand out as a dependable choice who is unlikely to fall short of expectations regardless of the season’s challenges.

While aiming to maximize upside in fantasy drafts is common, the real advantage comes from selecting players who offer a secure baseline along with potential growth. This approach is especially relevant given the unpredictable nature of injuries and performance slumps in the NFL.

Why Range of Outcomes Matters in Fantasy Football Strategy

Fantasy football success often hinges on understanding each player’s potential performance range rather than just the most likely outcome. Winning leagues demands drafting players who will surpass their average draft position (ADP) and provide value beyond expectations. Therefore, targeting athletes who maintain a strong floor while offering upside helps minimize risk without sacrificing potential.

Geno Smith’s Underrated Value as a Quarterback

Geno Smith, currently ranked as QB27 in average draft position for a single-quarterback format, is often overlooked despite consistently solid performances. Since his breakthrough in 2022, Smith has averaged between 15.7 and 18.5 fantasy points per game, never finishing worse than the top 20 at his position. Given the depth at quarterback this year, his ADP reflects undervaluation more than a lack of talent.

Smith represents a rare, stable starting quarterback who avoids the risk of midseason benching, making him a safer floor pick than many other QBs in 2025 drafts. His historical consistency suggests his value can only increase relative to where he is currently selected.

James Conner’s Stability Despite Injury Concerns

James Conner, the Arizona Cardinals’ running back, carries noteworthy injury risks largely due to his age and durability history. Yet, his ADP as RB19 underestimates his floor when healthy. Since his breakout in 2018, Conner has regularly posted fantasy points per game in the mid- to high-teens, finishing no worse than RB25 outside of an injury-plagued 2020 season.

Within the Cardinals offense, Conner remains the clear lead back and primary workhorse, despite emerging backup Trey Benson. While the upside may be limited to around 16 PPG, Conner’s floor is solid, providing teams with a dependable RB option who is unlikely to disappoint when on the field.

“Missed Tackles Forced vs. Yards After Contact per Attempt for the 2024 season [@FantasyPtsData]
> Bucky Irving, Ken Walker, and James Conner remain elite runners
> Jordan Mason + Aaron Jones could be a fun backfield
> Wonder if Ray Davis ever gets more chances pic.twitter.com/GV3AvmxKgn” —Ryan Heath

Examining A.J. Brown’s Consistent Performance with the Eagles

A.J. Brown’s tenure with the Philadelphia Eagles over the past three seasons has been marked by a remarkable consistency, averaging around 17 fantasy points per game. His lowest finish last season was WR12 overall, a testament to his reliability in a run-focused offense.

Though some critics note a lack of explosive upside compared to flashier receivers, Brown’s floor remains exceptionally high. His skill set is capable of 20-point-per-game output, but the team’s offensive structure, quarterback stability, and presence of a strong WR2 in DeVonta Smith have capped his ceiling around 18 points per game so far.

The fantasy community has recognized this steady floor, which explains why Brown is often drafted toward the bottom of the top tier of wide receivers despite his elite status. His decreased cost in drafts this year enhances his appeal as a value pick that can reliably return at least par value with the hope of a mid-range WR1 finish.

DeVonta Smith’s Upside as the Eagles’ Secondary Weapon

DeVonta Smith has steadily proven his worth in the NFL despite being undervalued. After a solid rookie season and consistent production averaging around 15 PPG over the past three years, Smith is often drafted much later than his output warrants, around WR23.

Smith’s role under a low pass volume offense last year limited his ceiling, but he demonstrated WR1 potential during games without Brown, posting 17.7 points per game over that span. His consistent target share and ability to elevate in more competitive situations make him a fascinating upside candidate with minimal downside risk.

If Brown misses time or game scripts push the Eagles to pass more frequently, Smith could easily emerge as a borderline WR1, making him a smart bet for fantasy managers seeking upside paired with a secure floor.

Jakobi Meyers: The Unappreciated Reliable Wide Receiver

Jakobi Meyers of the Las Vegas Raiders may be one of the most underrated fantasy receivers in recent memory, consistently exceeding his average draft position year after year. Despite his lack of flashy upside, Meyers provides dependable production, rarely finishing below WR35.

At 28 years old, Meyers is entering his prime and is poised for a steady role in an improving Raiders offense under new coaching. With Geno Smith’s arrival at quarterback and Pete Carroll taking over as head coach, Meyers benefits from a more stable offensive system and should receive a similar or greater portion of targets than last season.

Given the Raiders’ defensive struggles, they are unlikely to control games by protecting leads, which will necessitate more passing and thus additional volume for Meyers. His current ADP as WR40 undervalues his floor, as there is no reasonable scenario where he falls below a top-36 wide receiver.

Jake Ferguson’s Potential as a Steady Tight End Option

Jake Ferguson of the Dallas Cowboys is not expected to dominate at his position but provides a secure floor relative to his ADP as TE15. While last season‘s TE22 ranking was disappointing, much of that decline stemmed from the absence of starting quarterback Dak Prescott.

In prior seasons, Ferguson posted back-end TE1 scoring numbers, averaging over 10 PPG when playing with a healthy Prescott. With the Cowboys’ weak running back corps and a defense that struggles, Ferguson’s role in the offense is likely to expand, offering reliable and cost-effective production in fantasy lineups.

Given his low draft cost and the potential for improvement with Prescott back, Ferguson represents a smart, low-risk floor pick at tight end for 2025.

Why Selecting Players with Consistent Floors Matters in 2025 Fantasy Drafts

In an NFL landscape full of unpredictability and injury risks, draft strategies that prioritize players with a high fantasy floor by minimizing downside threats become paramount. A.J. Brown fits this profile perfectly, combining steady production with enough upside for a mid-tier WR1 finish, making him a crucial component for managers aiming to secure a safe foundation on their rosters.

Players like James Conner, Geno Smith, DeVonta Smith, Jakobi Meyers, and Jake Ferguson illustrate this balance of safety with upside, demonstrating that dependable value players can outperform more volatile choices. While ceiling players may promise explosive performances, the damage caused by floor failures often costs championships.

As fantasy football seasons are defined by surprises, drafting a dependable A.J. Brown fantasy floor pick offers managers peace of mind and a steady baseline to build around, ensuring resilience throughout the demanding 2025 campaign.