Jacob deGrom’s Hall of Fame future is under close scrutiny as discussions intensify about how his career achievements may reshape the standard for evaluating starting pitchers. Projected to become eligible for the Hall in the mid-2030s, deGrom’s case raises important questions about how modern pitcher performance metrics and career milestones will be weighed by voters. With pitching roles evolving over the past decade, his candidacy offers fresh insight into how starting pitcher greatness is defined.
Jay Jaffe recently touched on deGrom’s Hall of Fame credentials, sparking further analysis of his current standing and projections through the final years of his contract with the Texas Rangers. DeGrom’s career win totals, injury history, and peak dominance all contribute to a complex picture. This examination also considers the broader implications for 2010s and 2020s pitchers, whose traditional counting stats diverge from those of prior eras.
Challenges Facing Modern Starting Pitchers in Reaching Milestone Wins
A notable concern about pitcher Hall of Fame candidacies is the traditional emphasis on career win totals, historically viewed as a key metric for greatness. However, recent analysis reveals few active pitchers are on track to reach historically significant milestones like 200 wins, which complicates evaluation standards going forward.
Last year, only 11 active pitchers were positioned between 100 and 200 career wins. Among them, only Sonny Gray improved his chances significantly, adding 12 wins over the past season. Many others face setback or retirement: Gerrit Cole is sidelined through at least 2026 due to elbow surgery, Chris Sale has suffered multiple injuries, and veterans including Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Johnny Cueto, Carlos Carrasco, and Dallas Keuchel have either retired or are effectively out of top-level play.
Several pitchers currently recuperating—such as Wade Miley, dealing with forearm pain after Tommy John surgery, and Yu Darvish, who debuted late this season at age 38—have made minimal progress toward hit 200 wins. Meanwhile, Charlie Morton’s status remains uncertain to observers familiar with his career trajectory.
Eight new pitchers have joined the 100-win club this season but none appears on an assured path to 200 wins. Only Aaron Nola has roughly a 50% chance to reach 150 wins, while others like Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, George Kirby, and Paul Skenes project a 50% chance to hit that 150-win mark. These statistics emphasize the decreasing likelihood of pitchers achieving traditional longevity milestones due to changes in pitcher usage and workload management.
Projection Models Reflect Changing Trends in Pitcher Longevity
ZiPS projection models underscore the stark contrast between current pitchers and those from a decade ago. Ten years earlier, 17 pitchers had at least a 50% chance to reach 200 wins, with nine exceeding that mark; today, only a handful show potential for high career win totals. Notably, Cueto remains a rare active pitcher from that previous group unlikely to reach the milestone.
Evaluating deGrom’s remaining contract years from 2026 through 2028, ZiPS projects roughly 21 more wins, assuming his health holds and the Rangers exercise their option. Including projected wins later this season, he could finish around 123 career wins, well below the 200-win milestone but illustrative of his significant peak performance.
Peak Performance Versus Career Totals: Comparing deGrom to Hall of Famers
In comparing deGrom’s peak dominance, parallels have been drawn to pitchers like Sandy Koufax and Johan Santana. Koufax’s career peak was more concentrated but arguably more impactful each season, while deGrom’s peak reflects sustained excellence. This comparison carries weight since Koufax is widely regarded as an undisputed Hall of Famer.
However, invoking Santana as a similar case provides a cautionary perspective, as Santana was only on the Hall of Fame ballot briefly before falling short. Still, there is hope that deGrom’s case will benefit from changing voter attitudes and the evolution of pitcher evaluation over time.
Changing Voter Demographics and Their Impact on Future Ballots
Time may play a crucial role in deGrom’s Hall of Fame chances, given the shifting makeup of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA). The BBWAA only began allowing internet-based writers—often more familiar with advanced analytics—to vote after the 2007 season. Many of these voters were not yet eligible during Santana’s time on the ballot.
By the time deGrom becomes eligible, likely in the early-to-mid 2030s, the new voter demographic will have had decades of experience with altered starting pitcher roles. Pitcher workloads have declined steadily, and fewer decisions are credited to starters, further complicating comparisons with past generations.
The Evolving Standard for Hall of Fame Starting Pitchers
As veteran pitchers like Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Zack Greinke, all former Cy Young winners, approach Hall of Fame induction, the benchmark for starting pitcher greatness is set to shift. Clayton Kershaw, just slightly older than deGrom and having debuted six years earlier, is expected to retire and enter the Hall before deGrom becomes eligible. Kershaw’s induction could mark the end of the era characterized by pitchers with traditional workloads and milestones.
With Kershaw potentially the final starting pitcher recognized under the old standard, future voters will confront how to evaluate pitchers like deGrom, whose careers were shaped by modern bullpen usage and pitch count restrictions. This transformation raises profound philosophical questions about what constitutes greatness for a starting pitcher in today’s game.
Jacob deGrom’s Role in Shaping Future Hall of Fame Criteria
Jacob deGrom’s career unfolds at the nexus of statistical evolution and changing norms in pitcher evaluation. His candidacy is poised to influence how Hall of Fame voters balance longevity against peak dominance, especially given his comparatively lower career win totals relative to past legends.
As a result, deGrom could become a central figure in redefining pitcher excellence for the modern era. His future Hall of Fame case will likely challenge voters to adopt a more nuanced understanding of pitching greatness, accounting for the different demands and outcomes pitchers face in the 2010s and 2020s.