Buffalo Bills running back James Cook entered last season as a difficult fantasy asset to project. Uncertainty surrounded whether the Bills would fully embrace him as their lead back, yet Cook emerged as one of the most valuable fantasy football players despite playing in a period historically known as the running back dead zone. As the 2025 draft approaches, understanding James Cook’s fantasy football outlook is crucial for managers seeking late-round value.
Heading into the 2023 season, Cook seemed like a reliable RB2 option, averaging 13.7 fantasy points per game but lacking the upside to be considered a true difference-maker. However, the 2024 campaign revealed greater potential when Cook elevated his performance to an average of 16.7 points per game, putting him firmly in the RB1 conversation. Despite this surge, Cook’s draft cost has surprisingly decreased; he is currently being selected as the RB14 with an overall average draft position (ADP) around pick 35, which is lower than last year’s cost. This unusual pricing prompts a look into why fantasy managers may be undervaluing Cook despite his improved production.
Understanding the Factors Behind Cook’s 2024 Breakout
A detailed look at Cook’s 2024 season reveals that his increased fantasy output did not come from more opportunities. His total opportunity share actually declined from 62.4% in 2023 to 58.9% in 2024, while his target share among offensive plays decreased from 9.9% to 8.1%. Additionally, his overall touches dropped from 291 to 245. Every major statistical category except one showed a decline, yet his fantasy points per game rose substantially.
The key difference was Cook’s touchdown production. Over his first two NFL seasons spanning 34 games, Cook had scored nine total touchdowns. He doubled that figure alone in the 2024 season, reaching 18 touchdowns. This remarkable scoring output was driven largely by a dramatic change in his goal-line usage. In 2023, Cook had only two rushing touchdowns, with just one from inside the five-yard line. The following season, 16 of his 18 touchdowns came on the ground, including seven rushing scores from inside the five-yard range. His goal-line carries tripled from five in 2023 to 15 in 2024, marking a clear shift in how the Bills utilized him near the end zone.
Evaluating Cook’s Chances for Sustained Touchdown Production in 2025
James Cook’s ability to score touchdowns is fundamental to his fantasy value, given that his volume of touches alone is insufficient to produce high-end results. It is unlikely he will replicate an 18-touchdown season, but a complete reversion to a low touchdown total near six is also improbable. If Cook can score around 10 touchdowns in 2025, it could justify his current ADP and maintain his status as a valuable fantasy option.
The Bills’ backfield composition remains stable, with Cook firmly established as the lead back while Ty Johnson and Ray Davis provide depth and rotational support. Running back fantasy value is most closely correlated with volume, and Cook’s 2023 figures better aligned with his touch count than his 2024 efficiency spike. He averaged 0.8 fantasy points per opportunity in 2023 but improved to 1.09 points per opportunity in 2024, ranking eighth in the NFL compared to 31st two years prior.
While relying on efficiency numbers can be risky, the Bills presented a potent offensive unit last year, and their approach to goal-line usage appears deliberately measured. Josh Allen remains the primary goal-line back when necessary, but Cook has earned a bigger share of those carries. This balance reflects a strategic investment in Cook’s role, enhancing his touchdown opportunity while distributing responsibility within a high-scoring offense.
Why James Cook Is a Smart Mid-Round Target in 2025 Drafts
Initially, the available data might have suggested steering clear of Cook, but research paints a different picture. Even without a repeat of his 16-point-per-game ceiling from last year, Cook’s low-end production resembles a safe floor, especially when drafted in the mid-rounds. Ranked as RB15 by some analysts, Cook’s position matches his average finish across the past two seasons, indicating reliable consistency rather than boom-or-bust volatility.
Securing Cook in the fourth round offers fantasy managers a potentially valuable asset amid a phase of the draft historically prone to busts. His established role in Buffalo and demonstrated ability to convert limited touches into meaningful fantasy points make him an appealing option for teams seeking dependable running back depth with upside.
Insights from Frank Ammirante on James Cook’s Value
Contrary to the common sentiment favoring fading Cook, analyst Frank Ammirante highlights Cook’s strong fantasy credentials under the Bills’ offensive scheme. Since Joe Brady became the playcaller in Buffalo, Cook has emerged as one of fantasy football’s most productive players, particularly from Week 11 to Week 18 of the 2023 season, where he ranked as the 11th best running back and 18th in FLEX scoring.
Last year, Cook carried that performance forward, finishing as the 10th ranked running back and 12th best FLEX scorer in half PPR formats. Although a touchdown regression is expected given the unsustainable 16 touchdowns in 2024, Ammirante argues Cook is unlikely to plummet to minimal scoring totals. Buffalo’s strong running game, high-powered offense, and favorable schedule should create ample opportunities.
With this likely to be Cook’s final season in Buffalo as he pursues a new contract, the team is expected to maximize his touches to extract the most value from their lead back. Ammirante cautions that the emergence of Ray Davis will probably be delayed until the following year, reinforcing Cook’s role as a fourth-round target and a potential steal based on recent performance.