Jonathan Taylor remains a highly skilled running back whose fantasy potential is influenced greatly by the quarterback situation on the Indianapolis Colts. As managers prepare for 2025 drafts, Taylor presents as a steady option rather than a breakthrough star, making his value a topic of debate among fantasy owners. His outlook raises the question of whether he is a reliable draft choice or a player to avoid amid uncertain team dynamics.
Taylor has established himself as a consistent RB1 over his career, with the exception of a disappointing 2022 season. His fantasy point production has rarely dipped below 15.6 points per game, indicating his capability to deliver steady scoring. In a league dominated by committees, Taylor’s workload is notable, as he played over 80% of his team’s snaps last season and commanded the highest opportunity share among running backs at 88.4%. This heavy usage typically appeals to fantasy managers seeking volume, but hesitation remains.
Limitations Impacting Taylor’s Fantasy Appeal
Despite high snap counts, Taylor’s fantasy ceiling is constrained by his reliance on rushing touchdowns and a limited role in the passing game. The Colts’ offense, led alternately by Daniel Jones or rookie Anthony Richardson, offers few passing opportunities for Taylor. Over recent seasons, Taylor’s target share has hovered below 10%, even in a run-heavy offense that operated with a 48% neutral game script run rate.
Taylor’s scoring has fluctuated significantly, with touchdown totals ranging from 20 in 2021—his overall RB1 year—to just 4 in 2022. His value ultimately depends on how often he finds the end zone. Without a strong receiving role to balance rushing volume, his fantasy production is more touchdown-dependent than most top running backs.
While Taylor’s average draft position (ADP) near RB8 suggests he is valued close to his peak, some analysts remain skeptical of his upside. If you believe he will return to a 20-touchdown season, drafting him makes sense; otherwise, his risks outweigh the rewards.
“Counterpoint: JT was the RB19 in FP/G from weeks 1-15, before a couple of timely explosion games. He’s also an overrated runner (outside top 20 RBs in EPA/Rush each of L3 seasons), is in a bad offense (24th in EPA/Play in ‘24), and has a poor receiving role (40th in RB target…” —Dataroma, Analyst
Comparing Taylor’s Value Within the Running Back Pool
Evaluators place Taylor around RB11 in their rankings, slightly below his current ADP at RB10. When widening the scope to include wide receivers frequently available in the late second round, his appeal diminishes further. Taylor himself is not the issue, but the premium draft cost makes him a difficult player to recommend at present.
Frank Ammirante’s Perspective on Taylor’s 2025 Projection
Fantasy analyst Frank Ammirante entered the draft season viewing Jonathan Taylor as a primary target, recognizing his strong FLEX scoring finish in half-PPR formats last year, where he ranked sixth. However, Ammirante’s outlook has shifted toward neutrality as training camp has progressed.
The main factor influencing this change is the Colts’ quarterback competition. Ammirante expected Daniel Jones to start, but rookie Anthony Richardson now appears to have the edge. Richardson’s presence could limit Taylor’s red zone touches and overall target volume, creating uncertainty around his scoring opportunities.
Further complicating Taylor’s outlook is the Colts’ deployment of rookie tight end Tyler Warren, who is expected to take on a versatile role similar to Taysom Hill. Warren’s usage includes rushing attempts and fullback alignments, which could reduce Taylor’s carries and touchdown chances.
Given these developments, Ammirante advises a more cautious stance on Taylor, refraining from prioritizing him as an early-round selection despite his talent and usage history.
Looking Ahead: What Fantasy Managers Should Consider
Jonathan Taylor’s 2025 fantasy outlook is balanced between his volume-driven reliability and the risks posed by a shaky quarterback situation and a limited receiving role. His success will likely hinge on how the Colts manage their backfield touches amid quarterback competition and creative offensive schemes involving emerging players like Tyler Warren.
Fantasy managers weighing Taylor as a draft option must consider the likelihood of touchdown regression and a lack of target growth before selecting him at his current draft position. While he provides stable floor production based on rushing volume, his upside appears capped without a stronger passing game role or more consistent scoring.
Ultimately, Taylor remains a capable RB1 in name, but fantasy players seeking a safer or higher-ceiling running back might look to alternatives who offer more balanced roles or offensive stability in 2025.