Jonnu Smith emerged as a surprise fantasy football league winner during the 2024 season, exceeding expectations as a late-round pick. Now entering his age-30 season with Pittsburgh, the question remains whether Smith can replicate his breakout performance in a new offensive setting under the Steelers.
Evaluating Jonnu Smith’s Breakout Year and Current Prospects
Smith was a rare fantasy find in 2024, costing little to acquire but delivering numbers comparable to elite tight ends at critical moments. He recorded a career-high 88 receptions, 18 more than any previous season, and doubled his touchdown total from prior years with eight scores. His strong finish featured seven touchdowns in the final eight games, consistently providing high fantasy points even when not scoring.
Across the year, Smith secured nine finishes among the top-10 tight ends and outperformed notable stars, including Travis Kelce, in top-5 weekly performances. His usage rate out of the slot position was impressively high at 40.5%, which contributed to his seventh-best ranking in both yards after catch (YAC) and target share among tight ends.
Despite the impressive 2024 season, uncertainty surrounds Smith’s ability to repeat such production. His career YAC average stands at 6.8 yards per catch, dipping slightly to 5.9 last season, placing him in the 80th percentile. Analysts emphasize his skill in gaining yards on screens and designed plays, highlighting his effectiveness once he gets the ball in space.
“Jonnu Smith has averaged 6.8 YAC/catch throughout his career, including 5.9 last season (80th percentile) Just get the ball in his hands and let him run upfield. Smith thrives on screens and other manufactured targets Should help the #Steelers a lot in moving the chains pic.twitter.com/pOaFyUSkZs” —Bradley Locker
Smith’s touchdown production has fluctuated dramatically throughout his eight NFL seasons. In two standout years—2020 with Tennessee and 2024 with Miami—he was a dominant red-zone threat, catching 16 touchdowns on 176 targets. However, during the other six seasons combined, he totaled just 12 touchdowns from 257 targets. This inconsistency creates a wide range of potential outcomes for fantasy managers relying on his scoring ability.
New Chapter with the Steelers and Impact of Aaron Rodgers
A key factor influencing Smith’s outlook is his recent trade to the Pittsburgh Steelers, a move believed to be influenced by quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers and Smith had connections before the formal signing in late June, and this new quarterback-tight end pairing suggests a possible spike in Smith’s red-zone opportunities.
Rodgers boasts a 21.6% touchdown rate when the ball is inside the 25-yard line over his last two seasons, slightly below but close to his career norm of 23.8%. Among quarterbacks with at least 20 games played since 2022, Rodgers ranks highly in both completion percentage and tight end touchdown production, suggesting a favorable target environment for Smith.
Smith’s red zone involvement has consistently ranked well throughout his career, with annual tight end rankings in red zone targets per red zone routes often placing him near the top:
- 2020 (Tennessee Titans): 1st out of 41 qualifiers
- 2021 (New England Patriots): 1st out of 39 qualifiers
- 2022 (Patriots): 2nd out of 40 qualifiers
- 2023 (Atlanta Falcons): 12th out of 40 qualifiers
- 2024 (Miami Dolphins): 7th out of 39 qualifiers
While some may point to a modest decline in the last two years, factors such as changes in quarterback play and target competition justify this dip. Age will inevitably play a role as Smith is now in the later stages of his career. However, the presence of Rodgers could offset some age-related regression with improved scoring opportunities.
Concerns Over Competition and Offensive Landscape
The Cleveland Steelers’ offense will feature multiple passing options and a competitive running game, making red-zone targets less abundant for any single player. Smith must share snaps and scoring chances with promising young tight end Pat Freiermuth, a player who could extract a significant portion of red-zone opportunities.
Additionally, dynamic receiver DK Metcalf demands consistent targets near the goal line, while Pittsburgh’s backfield has recently become younger and more versatile in its approach. These factors contribute to an uncertain projection for Smith’s individual fantasy ceiling.
The presence of Freiermuth was addressed specifically, with analysts questioning whether he might absorb even a third of the tight end red-zone usage, which would diminish Smith’s scoring potential. This creates a plausible path for Smith’s fantasy value to decline, particularly given his draft cost and advancing age.
Despite these concerns, some fantasy experts view Smith as a viable Tier 3 tight end option, placing him behind rising stars like Brock Bowers and Trey McBride (Tier 1) and George Kittle (Tier 2). The Steelers’ efficient offensive system and Smith’s expected role as a top secondary target lend credibility to this optimistic stance.
Expert Perspective: Frank Ammirante’s Projection for Smith
Fantasy analyst Frank Ammirante presents a tempered view of Smith’s outlook following the trade to Pittsburgh. While acknowledging Smith’s impressive 2024 season with Miami—where he caught 88 passes for 884 yards and eight touchdowns—Ammirante warns that sharing snaps with Pat Freiermuth will inevitably suppress Smith’s output.
The Steelers‘ frequent use of two tight end sets means reduced solo opportunities, and this dynamic has caused Smith’s fantasy draft stock to fall considerably. He is now considered a later-round or bench option rather than a high-priority pick.
Ammirante highlights a positive connection in that Smith is reunited with coach Arthur Smith, under whom he played in Atlanta and Tennessee. Smith’s ability to share targets with other talented tight ends, such as Kyle Pitts during his Falcons stint where he recorded 50 catches for 582 yards and three touchdowns, suggests a reasonable floor as a solid TE3 candidate, particularly in best ball leagues.
In redraft formats, however, Ammirante recommends leaving Smith unselected even in deeper leagues, citing concerns over his limited ceiling and uncertain role.
What to Expect Moving Forward with Jonnu Smith
Smith’s 2024 breakout season elevated expectations, but his 2025 outlook is clouded by mixed signals—age, increased competition, and a new offensive scheme introduce considerable risk. The addition of Rodgers and familiarity with coach Arthur Smith provide tangible upside, while shared targets and a crowded offense temper enthusiasm.
For fantasy managers, Jonnu Smith represents a high-risk, moderate-reward choice. He could provide solid production as a Tier 3 tight end if his role as a secondary offensive weapon materializes. However, the volatility of his touchdown scoring and the competition for red zone touches may limit his ceiling, especially at his draft price.
Ultimately, Smith’s performance in early 2025 will determine whether he rebounds to fantasy viability or settles into a complementary role. Monitoring Pat Freiermuth’s usage and the Steelers’ offensive tendencies will be critical in evaluating the tight end’s ongoing value.