Jordan Love began his tenure as the Green Bay Packers’ starting quarterback with an impressive 19.4 fantasy points per game in 2023, marking him as the overall QB5 for that season. However, his production declined significantly in 2024, averaging only 16.3 points per game and slipping to the QB16 spot. Fantasy football managers are now left wondering what to expect from Love in his third year as a starter amid these fluctuating results.
Before replacing Aaron Rodgers, Love had little playing time during his first three NFL seasons. Selected 26th overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, he spent his rookie year mostly on the sidelines and only appeared in 10 games with one start during the next two seasons. His modest early performances made his 2023 breakout all the more unexpected.
Key Factors Behind Jordan Love’s 2024 Decline
Despite the strong showing in 2023, Love’s 2024 season was a clear regression largely due to circumstances beyond his control. Two major contributors to his decline were his limited mobility and the Packers’ offensive strategy shift.
While Love is known as a pocket passer, he did contribute 247 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground in 2023, but this dropped sharply to 83 yards and just one rushing touchdown in 2024, accounting for an approximate 2.0 points per game drop in fantasy scoring.
In addition, the Packers invested heavily in their running game by acquiring Josh Jacobs during the offseason, shifting their offensive emphasis toward ground attacks rather than aerial plays. The team’s neutral game script run rate increased from 45% in 2023 to an NFL-leading 53% in 2024, despite missing the mobile quarterback dimension typically seen in top rushing offenses.
The Packers’ offensive pace also slowed considerably, ranking ninth-slowest in the league with an average of 29.4 seconds per snap. They ran just 540 plays, which was 26 fewer than any other team. This cautious and run-heavy approach limited Love’s opportunities to generate fantasy points through the air or on the ground.
What Will Affect Love’s Outlook for the 2025 Season?
Looking ahead, the outlook for Love remains uncertain. One key variable is whether the Packers’ defense can perform well enough to allow more passing opportunities. If the defense struggles, the team might be forced into playing at a higher tempo and increasing pass attempts, which could boost Love’s fantasy value. However, the current expectation is for Green Bay’s defense to remain average or better, suggesting the offensive philosophy may not change significantly.
The selection of wide receiver Matthew Golden in the first round is often viewed as a potential sign of increased passing volume, but it should not be interpreted as a major shift away from a Jacobs-led rushing attack. The Packers still lack elite receiving talent that demands consistent targets, relying instead on a balanced offense that prioritizes running the ball and passing selectively.
This strategy does not favor Love’s fantasy prospects, who primarily rely on volume and dual-threat ability to excel in fantasy scoring. With the offense designed to run first, Love’s ceiling remains capped as a fantasy quarterback.
Current Rankings and Strategic Considerations for Fantasy Managers
Love is currently ranked as the 18th quarterback, just one spot behind his average draft position at 17th. Despite this proximity, drafting Love as a primary quarterback is not advisable for most fantasy managers. Since most leagues only require one starting quarterback, deeper-tier picks like Love usually do not offer the upside or reliability needed.
Managers looking for quarterbacks with breakout potential should consider mobile options, who provide more consistent rushing bonus points – a key factor in maximizing fantasy output. Love may occasionally deliver productive performances and can serve as a streaming option during favorable matchups, but he is unlikely to be a dependable QB1 candidate throughout the season.
Expert Analysis: Frank Ammirante’s Take on Jordan Love’s 2025 Season
Fantasy analyst Frank Ammirante views Jordan Love as one of the more undervalued quarterbacks currently available. Love finished 18th in fantasy points per game last year while dealing with several injuries, which influenced the Packers’ heavy reliance on their running game.
Ammirante points out that Love’s rushing numbers declined significantly between 2023 and 2024—from 247 yards at 4.9 yards per carry to 83 yards at 3.3 yards per carry—and his rushing touchdowns dropped from four to one. This suggests that when healthy, Love’s rushing ability can enhance his fantasy value.
With Love expected to be fully healthy in 2025, Ammirante anticipates the Packers will increase their passing attempts, supported by their first-round investment in Matthew Golden. Although replicating Love’s QB5 finish from 2023 seems unlikely, Ammirante believes Love offers strong value as a QB18 draft pick and may outperform his current cost.
“Jordan Love is one of the best values at quarterback right now.” —Frank Ammirante, Fantasy Analyst
“Now fully healthy, we can expect the Packers to throw at a higher rate than last year.” —Frank Ammirante, Fantasy Analyst
“He’s a great bet to provide significant profit on his current QB18 cost.” —Frank Ammirante, Fantasy Analyst
Final Thoughts on Jordan Love’s 2025 Fantasy Potential
Jordan Love’s 2025 fantasy outlook reflects a mix of promise and caution. His strong 2023 campaign demonstrated his ability to contribute significantly, but the 2024 regression exposed vulnerabilities tied to mobility and scheme constraints. Unless the Packers alter their run-heavy philosophy or encounter major defensive weaknesses, Love’s fantasy production will likely remain limited by fewer plays and lower rushing involvement.
For fantasy managers, this means Love is better suited as a late-round gamble or streaming option rather than a primary starting quarterback. Those looking to maximize their fantasy points should weigh more dynamic and mobile quarterbacks who can consistently generate rushing yardage alongside passing stats.