Terry McLaurin entered the 2024 season finally equipped with a strong quarterback, which helped him achieve a career-best performance for the Washington Commanders. Fantasy football managers are now left to wonder if McLaurin remains a reliable WR2 option or if his breakout season was overstated heading into 2025. This Terry McLaurin fantasy outlook examines his recent production and the factors that could influence his value next year.
Examining McLaurin’s Consistent Production and Career Context
McLaurin’s career to date represents a steady, competent NFL receiver who has produced well despite subpar quarterback play early on. As a third-round rookie, he surpassed 900 receiving yards while facing some of the league’s worst QB situations, which makes his progression notable among similar draftees. He fits comfortably within the group of productive pass catchers but stops short of the elite level, never fully reaching “greatness” in terms of impact or fantasy dominance.
For the first five seasons, McLaurin’s fantasy output was fairly stable. Aside from a brief spike during the high-scoring 2020 COVID-affected season when he averaged 14.9 points per game, he hovered between 12.3 and 13.7 PPG each year. This consistency made him a dependable option who rarely lost matchups but also seldom changed them significantly.
In 2024, with a vastly improved quarterback situation for the Commanders, McLaurin reached 15.8 PPG, numbers comparable to some WR1 performances. This elevation in scoring led many fantasy owners to label him “Scary Terry” and view him as one of 2024’s best values. However, a deeper dive suggests that this breakout may not be entirely sustainable.
Why McLaurin’s 2024 Numbers May Be Deceptive
Despite a perception of breakout, McLaurin’s target share and catch rate in 2024 were consistent with his career norms. His 23.3% share of team targets ranked 34th in the NFL, closely mirroring past seasons. Additionally, he was targeted on 22.7% of routes run, a figure that placed him 44th league-wide and matched his historical averages.
Looking at raw volume, McLaurin logged 82 receptions for 1,096 yards last season, his highest totals but only marginally improved compared to previous years. From 2020 through 2024, his catches ranged narrowly between 77 and 87 per season, while his yardage spanned from 1,002 to 1,191 yards.
The major driver behind his fantasy points surge was the extraordinary touchdown count. Historically, McLaurin scored 4 to 5 touchdowns per season, but in 2024 he tallied 13 touchdowns—more than double his previous output. If touchdowns had reverted to his career norm, his fantasy average would likely align around 13 PPG, similar to his past consistency.
Currently, McLaurin’s average draft position (ADP) is near WR16, indicating many managers value him as a solid second-tier receiver. Yet this price may be inflated given the touchdown spike seems an outlier. Ranking him as WR20, just below the consensus, suggests caution: if he falls close to or below ADP, he’s worth a pick, but overpaying risks reaching near his ceiling without room for growth.
Impact of Team Changes and Expert Projections for 2025
Analyst Frank Ammirante advises against investing heavily in McLaurin this year. Contributing factors include McLaurin’s current contract holdout and the arrival of teammate Deebo Samuel, who is expected to compete for targets, especially in scoring situations. Ammirante points out the unsustainable touchdown rate that inflated McLaurin’s 2024 fantasy stats, highlighting that his yardage per game actually showed little improvement over prior seasons.
“Terry McLaurin is an easy fade for me at cost. Not only is he holding out, but the team also brought in Deebo Samuel, who could take away targets, especially in the red zone.”
—Frank Ammirante, Fantasy Football Analyst
“We saw McLaurin put up an outlier touchdown rate in 2024, which played a major role in the boost in fantasy value. The veteran wideout scored 13 touchdowns in 17 games. From 2021-2023, he had a combined 14 touchdowns in 51 games.”
—Frank Ammirante, Fantasy Football Analyst
Given McLaurin is entering his age-30 season, the risk of decline becomes more relevant, reinforcing the viewpoint that his value is best leveraged in specific strategies rather than as a core lineup building block. Unless a fantasy manager is stacking the Commanders in Best Ball formats or other niche formats, avoiding McLaurin may be the prudent move.
Outlook for Terry McLaurin’s Fantasy Value Moving Forward
Terry McLaurin offers a blend of reliability and occasional upside, but his 2024 scoring surge was largely buoyed by an exceptional touchdown performance rather than a fundamental shift in role or volume. Fantasy players should weigh the likelihood of touchdown regression, team dynamics with Deebo Samuel’s addition, and the potential for diminished opportunity due to contract disputes.
While McLaurin remains a productive wideout with consistent yardage, the data suggests his true fantasy ceiling may be lower than some perceive entering 2025. His Terry McLaurin fantasy outlook cautions optimism tempered with realism: he is a solid WR2 with some upside, but not a clear-cut WR1 or matchup-wrecker. Strategic drafting respecting his ADP will be key to capitalizing on his value without overcommitting.