Travis Kelce’s status as a premier fantasy football tight end is under serious scrutiny heading into the 2025 season, marking the first time in over a decade he is not projected as a top-tier pick. Despite a long-standing reputation for dominating fantasy drafts in the early rounds, questions arise over whether Kelce can reverse a noticeable drop in production or if his decline will persist. This assessment of the Travis Kelce 2025 Fantasy Outlook explores his recent performance trends and what they mean for fantasy managers.
Recent Trends Highlight a Steady Decline
Reviewing Kelce’s recent seasons shows a clear trajectory downward after years of elite performance. In 2023, Kelce averaged 14.6 fantasy points per game, a fall from his previous peak of 18.6 PPG, signaling the onset of regression. Although he remained the top tight end overall, his output no longer justified the high average draft position (ADP) reserved for him. Expectations in 2024 anticipated further reduction in his role, reflecting concerns over his age—35 at the time—and the likelihood of the Chiefs limiting his targets in less competitive games.
Early 2024 appeared to validate those predictions, with Kelce recording modest target counts in the initial weeks. However, a key injury to Patrick Mahomes in Week 4 forced the Chiefs to abandon plans to reduce Kelce’s workload, as their receiving corps struggled to fill gaps caused by the loss of Hollywood Brown and the adjustment period for Xavier Worthy.
Between Weeks 4 and 13 of 2024, Kelce provided modest fantasy value, averaging 14.8 points per game, though still below his previous elite standards. Yet, from Week 14 onward, after the Chiefs elevated Worthy to WR1 status and increased his snap share, Kelce’s output noticeably declined, dropping to an average of 11.65 points per game. His playoff performances followed a similar pattern, delivering 12.2 PPG with Brown back in the lineup.
Despite Kelce’s ability to generate occasional standout games, the offensive strategy clearly shifted away from relying heavily on him, instead preserving his efforts for critical moments.
Volume Remains High but Efficiency Diminishes
One of the more puzzling aspects of Kelce’s declining fantasy value is that his target volume did not crater. In 2024, he maintained a 24.1% target share, ranking fourth among all players, and ran routes on nearly 90% of Mahomes’ passing plays. Despite this, Kelce’s efficiency suffered significantly, as evidenced by a drop to 8.5 yards per catch—the lowest of his career and a sharp decrease from previous seasons.
This decline in yardage efficiency translated to moderate total receiving yards, as Kelce amassed only 823 yards on 97 receptions. Another concern was his reduced scoring threat, with just three touchdowns during the season. This contrasts starkly with his 2017–2022 stats, where Kelce averaged at least eight touchdowns annually, barring one season. His touchdown total over the last 31 regular-season games, encompassing 2023 and 2024, stands at only eight, suggesting the Chiefs may be deliberately managing his usage in scoring situations.
Injury Factors and Shifting Team Dynamics Affect Outlook
Patrick Mahomes remains confident in Kelce’s abilities and will rely on him if necessary, but the offensive game plan no longer centers on the tight end as the primary target. With Rashee Rice’s full recovery and Week 1 readiness, alongside Xavier Worthy stepping into a clear WR1 role, and Hollywood Brown returning as WR3, Kelce could find himself lower in the target hierarchy.
Given these factors, barring significant injuries in the receivers group like those suffered last season, Kelce’s target share is unlikely to increase. Approaching 36 years old in 2025, Kelce will probably maintain similar production levels to last year but not reach his former elite status.
Fantasy managers should also consider Kelce’s current average draft position around TE6. While he may deliver reasonable value, he is unlikely to outperform tight ends that consistently exceed 13 points per game. Consequently, many may prefer to allocate their crucial mid-round picks to wide receivers or running backs, rather than spend early picks on a tight end offering moderate returns.
As one fantasy analyst puts it,
“If you draft Kelce at his TE6 ADP, you will probably get what you pay for…. Kelce is my TE9, and I cannot imagine drafting him anywhere this year.”
—(Anonymous Fantasy Analyst)
Dan Fornek Weighs in on Kelce’s 2025 Projection
Dan Fornek’s assessment of Kelce’s outlook underscores the challenges facing the veteran tight end. After a 2024 season with 97 receptions for 823 yards and just three touchdowns, Kelce shows clear signs of decline at age 36. Fornek highlights that Kelce’s yards per reception have dropped to a career low, and he no longer exhibits the same ability to make plays after the catch.
In a Chiefs offense that remains pass-heavy, Kelce’s volume should remain respectable, but Fornek advises fantasy players to consider alternatives. Mark Andrews, a seasoned tight end, is a more attractive pick if waiting a round is possible, and promising young options like Tucker Kraft could provide value later in drafts. The team’s shift toward emphasizing Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy signals an evolving hierarchy that leaves Kelce in a less prominent role.
Regarding prospects for a revival, Fornek remains skeptical:
“While there are reports that Kelce came to camp in better shape, I’m betting against a bounce back in what could be his final season. Plus, the Chiefs have no incentive to push Kelce. They can monitor his usage to keep him fresh for the playoffs.”
—Dan Fornek, Fantasy Analyst
What This Means for Fantasy Football Managers
Travis Kelce’s diminishing fantasy output and shifting role within the Chiefs offense represent a critical juncture for fantasy players drafting tight ends in 2025. Although his volume of targets remains high, the efficiency and scoring impact have decreased noticeably, reducing his ability to dominate as he once did.
Fantasy managers should approach Kelce with tempered expectations, recognizing that while he can still be a reliable contributor, he no longer offers the substantial edge that once made him a top-round selection. Instead, greater value may reside in emerging receivers or other positions where consistent scoring upside remains intact.
With Kelce approaching the twilight of his career and the Chiefs evolving their offensive schemes, the 2025 season is likely to confirm whether the decline is truly inevitable or if a final resurgence is possible. For now, his role suggests a more measured, complementary presence rather than the focal point of fantasy football success.